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Lorient v Paris FC

2026-10-10 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lorient (Local)

Prediction 33.14%3.02fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -0.805%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.17%33.02%33.13%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.782.802.9739.22%35.96%35.71%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Paris FC (Visit)

Prediction 39.45%2.53fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.911%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.89%39.58%39.49%41.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.352.382.5046.08%42.55%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.509%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.25%27.40%27.39%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.373.6031.25%29.53%29.72%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lorient (Local): 33.14%; Paris FC (Visit): 39.45%; Draw: 27.41%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -1.32%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 33.19%EV -1.59%E -0.534%K -0.805%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.43%EV -1.37%E -0.546%K -0.911%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.38%EV -1.32%E -0.367%K -0.509%G +0.000%1.4%2026-09-16 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.17%EV -4.24%E -1.47%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.45%EV -4.13%E -1.70%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.06%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 19:40
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.08%EV -4.57%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.54%EV -4.92%E -2.04%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.38%EV -4.61%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-16 19:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -5.56%E -1.95%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.21%EV -4.52%E -1.87%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.50%EV -5.43%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-16 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -5.56%E -1.95%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.28%E -3.10%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-16 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.28%E -3.10%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 14:00
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -6.10%E -2.56%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 15:20
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -6.10%E -2.56%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -6.10%E -2.56%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -6.10%E -2.56%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-16 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 32.17%EV -8.21%E -2.97%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.07%EV -14.39%E -6.63%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.76%EV -8.72%E -2.62%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-16 14:05
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.88%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.31%E -2.21%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -1.32%E -0.367%K -0.509%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.88%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.31%E -2.21%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -1.32%E -0.367%K -0.509%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 13:47
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -8.88%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.28%E -3.10%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-16 13:51
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.26%E -4.02%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.26%E -4.02%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-16 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -12.19%E -4.60%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -13.20%E -6.00%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.31%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-16 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.83%EV -15.50%E -6.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.21%EV -13.20%E -6.00%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.96%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-16 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 33.13%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.02%17.0%2026-09-16 14:01