Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lille v RC Lens

2026-10-30 20:05 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lille (Local)

Prediction 40.70%2.46fair odd
EV -0.297%
Edge -0.121%
Kelly -0.205%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.06%40.76%40.50%41.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.4547.62%43.87%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RC Lens (Visit)

Prediction 32.53%3.07fair odd
EV +0.841%
Edge +0.271%
Kelly +0.400%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.15%32.38%32.70%33.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.803.1037.74%35.25%35.71%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.78%3.73fair odd
EV +0.409%
Edge +0.109%
Kelly +0.149%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%26.86%26.80%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.503.7531.25%28.58%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lille (Local): 40.70%; RC Lens (Visit): 32.53%; Draw: 26.78%. For RC Lens (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.10, producing a positive expected value of +0.841%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV +0.841%E +0.271%K +0.400%G +0.003%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -11.64%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 23:39
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.44%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.56%EV -1.76%E -0.583%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.00%EV -5.48%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 22:49
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 40.19%EV -0.297%E -0.121%K -0.205%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.83%EV -2.41%E -0.804%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98%EV -2.27%E -0.622%K -0.856%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-18 20:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.26%EV -3.15%E -1.32%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.82%EV -5.01%E -1.72%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.92%EV -4.68%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:05
picklebet_au🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -5.67%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.96%E -2.64%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-18 20:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -6.32%E -2.19%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.96%E -2.64%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 20:13
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.37%E -1.86%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.52%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -0.930%E -0.251%K -0.344%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 19:13
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -4.37%E -1.86%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 20:04
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 19:39
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.56%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -10.30%E -3.07%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 22:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -12.51%E -5.82%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.66%EV -8.27%E -2.93%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -10.84%E -3.25%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 20:13
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV +0.409%E +0.109%K +0.149%G +0.001%5.9%2026-10-18 19:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -0.930%E -0.251%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 19:14
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 19:15
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 19:36
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 20:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -10.47%E -4.76%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 20:10
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 20:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.40%E -2.78%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.28%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.44%E -3.75%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -3.61%E -1.00%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 19:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -12.51%E -5.82%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -10.54%E -3.83%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -14.32%E -4.47%K -6.51%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-18 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.01%EV -14.54%E -6.92%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.50%EV -13.80%E -5.21%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.50%EV -12.98%E -3.99%K -5.77%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-18 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 41.29%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.75%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.95%3.9%2026-10-18 22:44
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 40.41%2.68I 37.31%NM 31.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.63%16.7%2026-10-18 20:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 35.42%1.36I 73.53%NM 29.17%1.12I 89.29%NM 35.42%152.1%2026-10-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 35.42%1.36I 73.53%NM 29.17%1.12I 89.29%NM 35.42%152.1%2026-10-18 23:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 34.15%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.2%2026-10-18 23:35
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.26%1xBet 2.45 (40.9%) / Tipico (DE) 3.10 (32.3%) / betfred_uk 3.75 (26.7%)Show details
Lille (Local)RC Lens (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 2.45 (40.9%)Tipico (DE)🎯 3.10 (32.3%)betfred_uk🎯 3.75 (26.7%)+0.260%