The School of Odds
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Le Mans FC v Toulouse

2026-10-16 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Le Mans FC (Local)

Prediction 30.25%3.31fair odd
EV -0.185%
Edge -0.056%
Kelly -0.080%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.83%29.84%30.45%31.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.123.3034.48%32.22%32.05%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toulouse (Visit)

Prediction 42.40%2.36fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.57%42.98%42.30%46.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.132.202.3053.19%46.90%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -0.725%
Edge -0.200%
Kelly -0.275%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.36%27.18%27.25%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.403.6330.30%29.11%29.41%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Le Mans FC (Local): 30.25%; Toulouse (Visit): 42.40%; Draw: 27.35%. For Le Mans FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -0.185%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -0.185%E -0.056%K -0.080%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -15.19%E -7.60%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.28%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-21 08:59
1xBet🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 30.10%EV -1.09%E -0.334%K -0.481%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%EV -2.47%E -1.07%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 27.11%EV -0.725%E -0.200%K -0.275%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-21 11:29
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -1.70%E -0.522%K -0.754%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -15.19%E -7.60%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -2.91%E -0.820%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-21 08:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -1.70%E -0.522%K -0.754%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.88%EV -16.04%E -8.10%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.18%EV -5.10%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-21 08:59
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.21%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -8.83%E -4.11%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.55%E -0.429%K -0.594%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-21 09:13
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.21%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.71%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.75%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -3.21%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.11%EV -16.04%E -8.10%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -1.55%E -0.429%K -0.594%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-21 08:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 30.14%EV -3.81%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.79%EV -5.01%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.07%EV -3.19%E -0.900%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-21 11:19
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -8.83%E -4.11%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -1.55%E -0.429%K -0.594%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 09:14
Pinnacle🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.53%EV -5.63%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.78%EV -3.32%E -1.46%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.69%EV -5.92%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-21 09:59
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -7.75%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -4.59%E -2.04%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-21 09:50
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.71%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.75%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:19
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.71%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.75%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.71%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.75%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.71%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.75%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:13
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -17.31%E -8.88%K -18.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-21 08:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.64%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.71%EV -20.28%E -10.79%K -23.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%EV -8.38%E -2.50%K -3.57%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-21 08:59
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -12.28%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.71%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-21 10:39
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.28%E -4.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -8.83%E -4.11%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.75%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-21 08:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.04%1.89I 52.91%NM 45.24%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%16.9%2026-09-21 08:59