The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Le Mans FC v Lille

2026-11-28 19:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Le Mans FC (Local)

Prediction 21.52%4.65fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.404%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.24%21.54%21.52%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.224.284.5827.03%23.69%23.39%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lille (Visit)

Prediction 52.58%1.90fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.44%52.73%52.58%53.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.751.771.8463.29%57.05%56.34%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.91%3.86fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.525%
Kelly +0.704%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.94%25.73%25.91%26.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.633.623.9429.85%27.53%27.62%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Le Mans FC (Local): 21.52%; Lille (Visit): 52.58%; Draw: 25.91%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.94, producing a positive expected value of +2.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.58I 21.83%NM 21.50%EV -1.45%E -0.316%K -0.404%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.51%EV -3.26%E -1.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.99%EV +2.07%E +0.525%K +0.704%G +0.015%1.6%2026-11-09 07:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.53%EV -4.24%E -0.954%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.52%EV -5.89%E -3.29%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.95%EV -0.521%E -0.136%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-09 07:45
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -7.47%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.49%EV -5.36%E -2.98%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.15%E -1.12%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-09 09:10
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.93%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.31%EV -8.52%E -4.90%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -5.44%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-09 10:04
Pinnacle🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.50%EV -4.67%E -1.05%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.33%EV -4.31%E -2.37%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -5.70%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-09 09:55
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.32%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.94%E -3.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-09 09:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -8.55%E -2.01%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.42%E -3.60%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-09 10:05
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -11.77%E -2.87%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -7.99%E -4.57%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.74%E -1.87%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-09 10:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.24%EV -13.93%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 53.77%EV -16.93%E -10.72%K -29.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.99%EV -11.92%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%17.7%2026-11-09 10:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%EV -20.38%E -5.51%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.44%EV -12.72%E -7.67%K -19.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.49%EV -13.22%E -3.94%K -5.62%G +0.000%17.1%2026-11-09 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.85I 25.97%NM 22.34%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.46%16.3%2026-11-09 10:55

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