The School of Odds
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AS Monaco v Toulouse

2026-10-10 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Monaco (Local)

Prediction 48.98%2.04fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.16%48.92%48.97%50.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.901.911.9956.18%52.72%52.36%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toulouse (Visit)

Prediction 25.54%3.92fair odd
EV -0.392%
Edge -0.101%
Kelly -0.135%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.16%25.66%25.53%26.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.603.9030.30%27.80%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.48%3.92fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.64%25.42%25.50%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.603.8829.41%27.61%27.78%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: AS Monaco (Local): 48.98%; Toulouse (Visit): 25.54%; Draw: 25.48%. For Toulouse (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.90, with an expected value of -0.392%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 49.43%EV -2.54%E -1.27%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22%EV -0.392%E -0.101%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.35%EV -1.13%E -0.290%K -0.391%G +0.000%1.7%2026-09-16 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 15:26
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.41%EV -4.99%E -2.57%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.23%EV -2.95%E -0.775%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.36%EV -3.67%E -0.972%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-16 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.98%EV -4.99%E -2.57%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -4.22%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 15:41
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.33%EV -4.22%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.46%EV -4.95%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 14:45
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.45%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 15:20
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.45%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.45%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.45%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-16 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.94%E -3.65%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -8.05%E -2.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-16 15:35
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.92%E -4.21%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -9.33%E -2.63%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.45%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-16 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.41%E -4.50%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.50%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -3.16%E -0.833%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 19:45
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -8.41%E -4.50%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-16 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.00%EV -8.90%E -4.79%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -6.99%E -1.91%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-16 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.56%EV -9.88%E -5.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.16%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -9.54%E -2.69%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 15:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -11.84%E -6.58%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -10.61%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-16 15:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.47%EV -12.82%E -7.20%K -16.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -15.72%E -4.76%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.38%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-16 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 47.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.38%16.6%2026-09-16 15:36