Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Strasbourg v Stade de Reims

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Strasbourg (Local)

Prediction 58.77%1.70fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -3.73%
Kelly -9.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%58.86%58.83%62.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.541.541.6068.97%64.98%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stade de Reims (Visit)

Prediction 18.47%5.41fair odd
EV +10.85%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.235%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.94%18.37%18.51%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.385.506.0022.22%18.58%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV -0.993%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%22.76%22.66%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.124.204.3528.57%24.26%23.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Strasbourg (Local): 58.77%; Stade de Reims (Visit): 18.47%; Draw: 22.76%. For Stade de Reims (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.09%EV -9.50%E -6.17%K -17.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.94%EV +10.85%E +1.81%K +2.17%G +0.235%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -0.993%E -0.228%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.09%EV -9.50%E -6.17%K -17.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.94%EV +10.85%E +1.81%K +2.17%G +0.235%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -0.993%E -0.228%K -0.297%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 19:55
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.74%EV -10.09%E -6.59%K -19.04%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.29%EV +7.15%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.107%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.646%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-03 19:55
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.74%EV -10.68%E -7.02%K -20.53%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +7.15%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.107%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -3.27%E -0.769%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-03 19:55
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -11.26%E -7.46%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV +7.15%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.107%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -3.27%E -0.769%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 19:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -11.26%E -7.46%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV +7.15%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.107%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -3.27%E -0.769%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 19:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -11.26%E -7.46%K -22.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV +7.15%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.107%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -3.27%E -0.769%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.80%EV -11.85%E -7.90%K -23.70%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV +6.23%E +1.08%K +1.31%G +0.082%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-03 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.96%EV -12.44%E -8.35%K -25.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV +6.23%E +1.08%K +1.31%G +0.082%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-03 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.69%EV -13.62%E -9.26%K -28.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV +3.46%E +0.618%K +0.752%G +0.026%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-03 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.12%EV -6.56%E -4.13%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV +1.61%E +0.293%K +0.358%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49%EV -3.27%E -0.769%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -5.98%E -3.73%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-03 19:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -6.56%E -4.13%K -11.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -8.33%E -5.34%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-03 19:10
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-03 05:35
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-03 05:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-03 05:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -11.24%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-03 05:16
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.63%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -13.51%E -3.56%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 19:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.48%EV -8.33%E -5.34%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -9.47%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -2.13%E -0.496%K -0.646%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 19:10
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 57.59%EV -14.79%E -10.20%K -32.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.56%EV -16.86%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.86%EV -20.34%E -5.81%K -8.14%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-03 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.