The School of Odds
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SAG Cestas v Aviron Bayonnais FC

Kickoff: 2026-11-14 17:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SAG Cestas (Local)

Prediction 15.21%6.57fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.207%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.38%15.04%15.22%16.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.936.006.5018.18%16.88%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aviron Bayonnais FC (Visit)

Prediction 62.89%1.59fair odd
EV -5.66%
Edge -3.78%
Kelly -11.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.18%62.97%62.80%65.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.451.441.5075.19%69.18%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.90%4.57fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.88%21.98%21.98%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.194.204.4025.64%23.86%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SAG Cestas (Local): 15.21%; Aviron Bayonnais FC (Visit): 62.89%; Draw: 21.90%. For SAG Cestas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.50, with an expected value of -1.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.38%EV -1.14%E -0.175%K -0.207%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.40%EV -16.36%E -12.30%K -49.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.22%EV -10.21%E -2.49%K -3.29%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-14 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -5.70%E -0.919%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.69%EV -6.29%E -4.22%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-14 14:10
MyBookie.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -7.55%E -5.14%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.54%EV -5.83%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-14 15:03
Unibet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -8.81%E -6.07%K -19.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-14 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -8.81%E -6.07%K -19.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-14 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -8.81%E -6.07%K -19.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-14 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 16:20
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -3.64%E -0.828%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-14 16:20
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.66%E -3.78%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.59%E -3.74%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-14 16:59
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.66%E -3.78%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.59%E -3.74%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-14 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.66%E -3.78%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.59%E -3.74%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-14 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -5.66%E -3.78%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -14.59%E -3.74%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-14 16:59
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-14 14:10
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -14.47%E -10.64%K -40.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-14 16:59
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -8.74%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -14.47%E -10.64%K -40.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-14 16:59
1xBet🎯5.97I 16.75%NM 15.67%EV -9.20%E -1.54%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.37%EV -5.66%E -3.78%K -11.33%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.96%EV -6.71%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-14 16:59
Betway🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -12.54%E -2.18%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -8.81%E -6.07%K -19.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-14 15:04
Pinnacle🎯5.61I 17.83%NM 16.11%EV -14.67%E -2.62%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.47%EV -7.55%E -5.14%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 22.42%EV -11.75%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-14 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.15%EV -14.82%E -2.65%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.81%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -5.83%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-14 14:10
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -16.35%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-14 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -16.35%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -9.44%E -6.55%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-14 16:30
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -16.35%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -11.95%E -8.54%K -29.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%13.4%2026-11-14 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.83%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.67%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51%3.3%2026-11-14 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.19%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%3.7%2026-11-14 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.82%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.41%3.8%2026-11-14 17:00

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