Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

TPS Turku v IF Gnistan

Inicio: 2026-04-24 15:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

TPS Turku (Local)

Predicción 40.04%2.50momio equitativo
EV -3.89%
Ventaja -1.62%
Kelly -2.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.82%40.01%40.06%45.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.302.302.4052.36%43.53%43.48%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

IF Gnistan (Visitante)

Predicción 33.81%2.96momio equitativo
EV -2.97%
Ventaja -1.03%
Kelly -1.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.03%33.82%33.78%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.702.702.8740.00%36.97%37.04%34.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.15%3.82momio equitativo
EV -1.43%
Ventaja -0.379%
Kelly -0.515%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.48%26.17%26.16%28.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.503.503.7734.72%28.58%28.57%26.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: TPS Turku (Local): 40.04%; IF Gnistan (Visitante): 33.81%; Empate: 26.15%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.82. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.77, con un valor esperado de -1.43%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.05%EV -3.89%E -1.62%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.97%EV -4.32%E -1.53%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -3.26%E -0.880%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-21 17:30
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.82%EV -3.89%E -1.62%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.77%EV -4.32%E -1.53%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.40%EV -5.35%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 21:29
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -3.89%E -1.62%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 15:04
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.64%EV -4.69%E -1.97%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.70%EV -2.97%E -1.03%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.66%EV -1.43%E -0.379%K -0.515%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-24 03:45
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -4.69%E -1.97%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 13:00
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.89%E -2.51%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:03
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.89%E -2.51%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-24 03:46
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.89%E -2.51%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.87%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-24 03:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -5.89%E -2.51%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 10:05
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -5.89%E -2.51%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 10:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.47%EV -6.30%E -2.69%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.47%EV -6.30%E -2.69%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:39
BetAnything🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.47%EV -6.30%E -2.69%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.58%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.56%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:40
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.03%EV -6.30%E -2.69%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.58%EV -5.67%E -2.03%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.18%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 23:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.10%E -3.06%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.54%EV -6.01%E -2.16%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.18%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 21:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 20:13
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-24 03:40
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 22:14
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 19:43
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-24 03:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-24 02:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-24 02:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-24 03:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.42%E -4.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 10:09
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.42%E -4.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 10:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -10.41%E -3.93%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 15:10
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -11.42%E -4.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 10:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 12:59
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 12:59
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -7.90%E -3.43%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 12:59
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.80%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -7.18%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 19:39
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.80%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -7.18%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 19:39
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 22:14
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 22:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 22:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 22:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.07%EV -8.70%E -3.81%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 22:14
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -9.90%E -4.40%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 19:40
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -9.90%E -4.40%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-24 03:05
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.90%E -4.40%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.10%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 10:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.95%EV -11.90%E -5.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -12.41%E -3.70%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 22:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 37.82%EV -11.90%E -5.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.28%EV -15.48%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.89%EV -24.70%E -8.58%K -13.14%G +0.000%20.2%2026-04-23 10:09
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.96%EV -13.90%E -6.47%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.87%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -8.49%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.49%EV -23.51%E -12.31%K -25.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.03%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.48%EV -3.26%E -0.880%K -1.21%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-24 03:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.29%1.4%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.60%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.20%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.60%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.20%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.46%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-04-24 03:45