The School of Odds
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TPS Turku v FC Inter Turku

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS Turku (Local)

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%24.46%24.46%24.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.883.883.883.8825.77%25.77%25.77%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Inter Turku (Visit)

Prediction 49.18%2.03fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.18%49.18%49.18%49.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.931.931.931.9351.81%51.81%51.81%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.36%3.79fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%26.36%26.36%26.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.603.603.6027.78%27.78%27.78%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS Turku (Local): 24.46%; FC Inter Turku (Visit): 49.18%; Draw: 26.36%. For FC Inter Turku (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.93, with an expected value of -5.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.46%EV -5.09%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.18%EV -5.09%E -2.64%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -5.09%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.