Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ilves Tampere v FC Lahti

Inicio: 2026-07-26 12:01 UTC

Final: Ilves Tampere 1–0 FC Lahti

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ilves Tampere (Local)

Predicción 37.07%2.70momio equitativo
EV -0.282%
Ventaja -0.105%
Kelly -0.167%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.52%37.21%37.24%39.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.442.452.6944.84%40.96%40.82%37.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Lahti (Visitante)

Predicción 36.32%2.75momio equitativo
EV -0.113%
Ventaja -0.041%
Kelly -0.065%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.46%36.27%36.15%37.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.382.582.552.7542.02%38.79%39.22%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.61%3.76momio equitativo
EV -2.88%
Ventaja -0.789%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.00%26.52%26.60%28.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.423.403.6530.77%29.22%29.41%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ilves Tampere (Local): 37.07%; FC Lahti (Visitante): 36.32%; Empate: 26.61%. Para FC Lahti (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.753. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.750, con un valor esperado de -0.113%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.02%EV -0.282%E -0.105%K -0.167%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%EV -4.47%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.14%EV -5.01%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-26 11:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.52%EV -0.653%E -0.244%K -0.389%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.06%EV -4.11%E -1.56%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.86%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 11:53
BetAnything🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.52%EV -0.653%E -0.244%K -0.389%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.06%EV -4.11%E -1.56%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.86%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 11:55
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -3.62%E -1.39%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.56%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.87%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 11:55
Coolbet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.40%EV -4.73%E -1.84%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.27%EV -3.75%E -1.41%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -2.88%E -0.789%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-26 11:41
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.79%EV -7.38%E -2.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -5.54%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-26 11:59
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.87%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 11:20
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -7.38%E -2.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 12:00
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -5.47%E -2.15%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 11:55
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.83%EV -5.84%E -2.30%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.83%EV -7.74%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.54%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 11:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.70%EV -5.84%E -2.30%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.27%EV -6.65%E -2.59%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -8.20%E -2.38%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.56%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.87%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 11:15
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:55
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.33%E -2.93%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 11:55
BetUS🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.73%EV -8.07%E -3.25%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.99%EV -5.56%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.28%EV -5.28%E -1.48%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 11:35
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.60%EV -8.07%E -3.25%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.29%E -2.44%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.54%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:55
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.60%EV -8.07%E -3.25%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.29%E -2.44%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.54%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:55
GTbets🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.27%EV -8.81%E -3.58%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.13%EV -2.66%E -0.991%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.60%EV -5.81%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -5.56%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 11:55
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.87%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 11:55
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.38%E -2.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 12:00
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -6.87%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 12:00
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:55
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 11:20
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 11:20
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-26 11:54
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -13.52%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-26 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -7.38%E -2.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -4.21%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 11:20
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.38%E -2.89%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -5.54%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 11:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.87%E -1.96%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 11:20
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -12.83%E -5.34%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -4.21%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-26 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -11.03%E -4.60%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.01%E -4.49%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-26 11:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -11.77%E -4.95%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-26 11:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -12.89%E -5.48%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.44%EV -9.19%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.85%EV -12.19%E -3.70%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-26 11:45
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:38
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.49%EV -13.63%E -5.85%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -0.113%E -0.041%K -0.065%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.35%EV -14.00%E -6.03%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.81%EV -1.93%E -0.715%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 08:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.35%EV -14.00%E -6.03%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.81%EV -1.93%E -0.715%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.39%EV -14.74%E -6.41%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -1.93%E -0.715%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.86%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 08:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.39%EV -14.74%E -6.41%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -1.93%E -0.715%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.86%E -3.24%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 08:40
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -14.74%E -6.41%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.57%EV -13.55%E -5.69%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-26 11:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.46%EV -17.33%E -7.77%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.46%EV -4.47%E -1.70%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -13.52%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-26 08:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 36.97%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-07-26 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-07-26 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-07-26 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-07-26 12:00