Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Mariehamn v Jaro

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 16:00 UTC

Final: IFK Mariehamn 2–0 Jaro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Mariehamn (Local)

Prediction 41.24%2.42fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.16%41.43%41.30%43.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.212.202.3448.54%45.18%45.45%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaro (Visit)

Prediction 32.66%3.06fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.404%
Kelly +0.597%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.01%32.52%32.65%33.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.803.1037.04%35.37%35.65%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.10%3.83fair odd
EV +0.736%
Edge +0.191%
Kelly +0.258%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.09%26.05%26.05%27.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.453.423.8631.25%28.96%29.20%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IFK Mariehamn (Local): 41.24%; Jaro (Visit): 32.66%; Draw: 26.10%. For Jaro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.69%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.01%EV +1.25%E +0.404%K +0.597%G +0.007%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.30%EV -0.829%E -0.218%K -0.296%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-31 14:55
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -5.97%E -2.62%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -3.65%E -1.24%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.35%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 12:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -11.33%E -5.27%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -3.65%E -1.24%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.91%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -5.28%E -1.82%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 15:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.91%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -5.28%E -1.82%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 15:35
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.91%EV -4.32%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -5.28%E -1.82%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-31 15:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.28%E -1.82%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 15:40
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -5.28%E -1.82%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-31 12:25
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -3.50%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.51%EV -5.61%E -1.94%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.09%EV +0.736%E +0.191%K +0.258%G +0.002%3.2%2026-08-31 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:25
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:24
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:25
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:25
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:24
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.53%EV -10.10%E -4.63%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -5.93%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 16:25
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.15%E -2.24%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -4.74%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 15:35
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 15:37
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 15:33
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -7.35%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 15:35
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 15:55
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 15:55
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -6.91%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 15:40
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.58%EV -4.74%E -2.05%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.24%EV -7.89%E -2.80%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.18%EV -6.57%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.74%EV -5.56%E -2.43%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -8.22%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.57%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 15:55
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 15:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 15:40
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 15:44
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 15:45
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 15:35
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 12:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 12:25
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.45%EV -11.75%E -5.49%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.45%EV -11.75%E -5.49%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.67%EV -12.57%E -5.93%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-30 16:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.67%EV -12.57%E -5.93%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -8.55%E -3.05%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-30 16:24
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 15:40
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 15:40
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 15:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 15:40
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -7.21%E -3.20%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.57%E -3.75%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 15:55
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.27%E -4.21%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-31 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -11.33%E -5.27%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-31 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -11.33%E -5.27%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-31 15:34
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -11.33%E -5.27%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-31 15:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -13.40%E -6.38%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -10.18%E -3.70%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 15:40
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -13.40%E -6.38%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.81%E -4.37%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 41.55%EV -15.05%E -7.30%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.70%EV -11.81%E -4.37%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.75%EV -16.49%E -5.15%K -7.49%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-30 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-08-31 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-08-31 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-08-31 15:35
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-08-31 15:35