The School of Odds
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IFK Mariehamn v Ilves Tampere

2026-10-10 16:00 UTC — Veikkausliiga - Finland

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Mariehamn (Local)

Prediction 26.64%3.75fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.837%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.10%26.64%26.35%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.373.303.6431.75%29.69%30.30%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves Tampere (Visit)

Prediction 49.10%2.04fair odd
EV -5.25%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -5.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%49.10%49.35%49.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.841.871.9358.48%54.39%53.48%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -6.56%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.78%24.27%24.29%25.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.693.803.8529.85%27.09%26.32%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: IFK Mariehamn (Local): 26.64%; Ilves Tampere (Visit): 49.10%; Draw: 24.27%. For IFK Mariehamn (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.64, with an expected value of -3.05%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 26.10%EV -3.05%E -0.837%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.22%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 11:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.28%EV -5.71%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.49%EV -7.70%E -4.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.23%EV -6.81%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 11:58
LeoVegas🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.77%E -3.22%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -7.70%E -4.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-22 11:39
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.19%E -4.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-22 13:34
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.17%E -4.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-22 11:58
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.30%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.59%EV -14.08%E -8.05%K -18.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-22 11:44
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 26.44%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 48.70%EV -16.05%E -9.38%K -22.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.86%EV -18.70%E -5.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%20.1%2026-09-22 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.