The School of Odds
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HJK Helsinki v IF Gnistan

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:00 UTC

Final: HJK Helsinki 4–0 IF Gnistan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HJK Helsinki (Local)

Prediction 66.90%1.49fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -8.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.54%66.77%66.85%68.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.381.381.4478.74%72.62%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Gnistan (Visit)

Prediction 13.95%7.17fair odd
EV +0.174%
Edge +0.024%
Kelly +0.028%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.44%14.09%13.89%15.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.386.507.1818.18%15.68%15.38%13.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.14%5.22fair odd
EV +0.503%
Edge +0.096%
Kelly +0.118%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.31%19.14%19.26%20.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.704.605.2522.73%21.28%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HJK Helsinki (Local): 66.90%; IF Gnistan (Visit): 13.95%; Draw: 19.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.503%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.16%EV -5.66%E -4.02%K -13.81%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.54%EV -0.943%E -0.133%K -0.155%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.31%EV +0.503%E +0.096%K +0.118%G +0.001%4.1%2026-10-17 10:00
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -5.00%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%7.18I 13.93%NM 13.44%EV +0.174%E +0.024%K +0.028%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.60%EV -0.646%E -0.124%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.49%EV -4.33%E -3.03%K -10.06%G +0.000%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.77%EV -2.20%E -0.314%K -0.366%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.74%EV -1.41%E -0.274%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-17 12:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.34%E -0.334%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.34%E -0.334%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 12:55
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.34%E -0.334%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 12:25
BetAnything🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -2.34%E -0.334%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 12:35
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 12:55
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.94%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -6.20%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 12:50
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.29%EV -7.00%E -5.04%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.46%EV -3.04%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.25%EV -6.96%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 12:55
GTbets🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.66%E -2.54%K -8.31%G +0.000%6.99I 14.31%NM 13.68%EV -2.48%E -0.354%K -0.414%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.89%EV -7.92%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 12:55
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.00%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 12:54
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -5.83%E -0.863%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 12:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.93%EV -7.00%E -5.04%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.68%EV -5.13%E -0.754%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 12:49
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.09%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.62%EV -5.13%E -0.754%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 12:35
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.09%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.62%EV -5.13%E -0.754%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 12:35
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.68%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 12:45
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.84%EV -8.34%E -6.09%K -22.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.54%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -9.07%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 09:50
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.54%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.33%EV -9.07%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 09:50
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 12:50
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 12:53
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 12:53
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:55
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:50
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:29
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:29
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:30
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 08:29
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-10 14:01
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 09:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.19%EV -11.02%E -8.28%K -33.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-17 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 10:50
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -9.31%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 12:35
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 12:35
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -23.27%E -4.23%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-17 10:33
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.91%EV -11.02%E -8.28%K -33.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.61%EV -16.29%E -2.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 66.64%EV -15.03%E -11.84%K -55.67%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.34%EV -17.68%E -3.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.02%EV -14.81%E -3.33%K -4.29%G +0.000%18.2%2026-10-17 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.38%EV -11.69%E -8.85%K -36.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.01%EV -19.78%E -3.44%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.61%EV -15.77%E -3.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-11 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.14%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.42%0.5%2026-10-17 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.90%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.70%0.9%2026-10-17 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.90%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.70%0.9%2026-10-17 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.90%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.70%0.9%2026-10-17 12:45