Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lahti v KuPS Kuopio

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

37%

35%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lahti (Local)

Prediction 36.80%2.72fair odd

EV -4.68%

Edge -1.81%

Kelly -2.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.69%36.80%36.80%36.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.522.552.552.5939.68%39.14%39.14%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KuPS Kuopio (Visit)

Prediction 34.91%2.86fair odd

EV -4.68%

Edge -1.72%

Kelly -2.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.91%34.91%34.91%35.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.672.672.7338.17%37.38%37.38%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd

EV -4.68%

Edge -1.39%

Kelly -1.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.02%28.28%28.28%28.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.333.333.3730.30%29.99%29.99%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lahti (Local): 36.80%; KuPS Kuopio (Visit): 34.91%; Draw: 28.28%. For FC Lahti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.59, with an expected value of -4.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -4.68%E -1.81%K -2.95%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 34.91%EV -4.68%E -1.72%K -2.71%G +0.000%	3.37I 29.67%NM 28.28%EV -4.68%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-11 21:04
NordicBet🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -7.26%E -2.88%K -4.78%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -8.52%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-11 16:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.