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AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Oulu (Local)

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.66%29.89%29.84%31.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.003.2535.71%33.15%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HJK Helsinki (Visit)

Prediction 43.04%2.32fair odd
EV -6.17%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%43.03%43.02%44.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.152.1850.00%47.16%46.51%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.04%3.70fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.08%27.13%28.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.383.353.5030.77%29.62%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AC Oulu (Local): 29.92%; HJK Helsinki (Visit): 43.04%; Draw: 27.04%. For AC Oulu (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -2.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -2.75%E -0.847%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -7.03%E -3.26%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -2.75%E -0.847%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -7.03%E -3.26%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 18:55
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.17%E -2.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -9.42%E -2.81%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-03 18:54
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.17%E -2.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -9.42%E -2.81%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-03 18:54
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -7.46%E -3.47%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.72%E -1.95%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-03 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.61%E -4.58%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.37%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-03 19:19
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.46%E -3.47%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.46%E -3.47%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.46%E -3.47%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 18:54
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.46%E -3.47%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.77%E -5.74%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.37%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-03 20:30
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.23%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.77%E -5.74%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-03 19:45
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.02%EV -8.75%E -4.13%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -5.37%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-03 19:09
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.61%E -4.58%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -5.37%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-03 19:09
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.61%E -4.58%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -5.37%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-03 19:09
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -13.82%E -4.80%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.61%E -4.58%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -8.07%E -2.37%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-03 19:19
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -13.92%E -6.96%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -12.13%E -3.73%K -5.39%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-03 20:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 32.24%2.14I 46.73%NM 38.87%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.88%20.2%2026-08-03 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 32.24%2.14I 46.73%NM 38.87%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.88%20.2%2026-08-03 19:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 32.24%2.14I 46.73%NM 38.87%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.88%20.2%2026-08-03 19:35