Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC

Final: AC Oulu 0–1 HJK Helsinki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Oulu (Local)

Prediction 30.23%3.31fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -0.784%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%30.15%30.25%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.053.2535.71%32.89%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HJK Helsinki (Visit)

Prediction 43.39%2.30fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -3.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%43.46%43.44%44.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.2050.00%47.42%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV +0.248%
Edge +0.065%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.39%26.31%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.473.503.8030.30%28.81%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AC Oulu (Local): 30.23%; HJK Helsinki (Visit): 43.39%; Draw: 26.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.248%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.03%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.69%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.28%EV +0.248%E +0.065%K +0.089%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 13:20
GTbets🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -1.76%E -0.543%K -0.784%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.45%EV -7.14%E -3.34%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -4.50%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 12:39
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.54%E -2.06%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.03%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.03%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 12:40
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:14
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:34
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:34
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:35
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:35
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -9.74%E -4.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 09:35
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.21%EV -10.18%E -4.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.21%EV -10.18%E -4.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -6.35%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 09:35
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 13:14
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -11.04%E -5.39%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 15:45
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 12:44
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 15:45
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 15:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 15:24
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -10.61%E -5.15%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 09:34
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -10.61%E -5.15%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 13:15
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -15.37%E -5.49%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -13.21%E -6.61%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -7.67%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 15:30
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.38%EV -6.90%E -2.24%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.73%EV -4.97%E -2.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.89%EV -8.19%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -6.90%E -2.24%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.95%EV -5.84%E -2.69%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -8.19%E -2.35%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 15:39
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.40%E -2.48%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -8.99%E -2.60%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 15:45
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.40%E -2.48%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -8.99%E -2.60%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 15:45
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -8.99%E -2.60%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 14:45
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.10%EV -10.18%E -4.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -8.99%E -2.60%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:24
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:24
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 12:25
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 15:48
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 15:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.34%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:15
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.34%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:15
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.95%E -4.50%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 15:24
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -13.21%E -6.61%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -13.21%E -6.61%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -13.21%E -6.61%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -10.30%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 15:40
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -12.34%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.96%EV -6.71%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -11.62%E -3.47%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 15:50
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -4.54%E -2.06%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 13:19
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -4.54%E -2.06%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 13:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -4.54%E -2.06%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -4.54%E -2.06%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 13:20
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.04%E -5.39%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -13.21%E -6.61%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.94%E -3.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-09 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-09 15:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-09 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-09 15:45
Matchbook3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-09 15:45

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.