The School of Odds
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AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Final: AC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Oulu (Local)

Prediction 20.04%4.99fair odd
EV +0.191%
Edge +0.038%
Kelly +0.048%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.95%20.11%19.99%21.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.514.505.0025.00%22.20%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HJK Helsinki (Visit)

Prediction 55.80%1.79fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.32%55.73%55.86%57.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.651.661.7366.67%60.54%60.24%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.16%4.14fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.458%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.88%24.16%24.15%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.753.704.2028.57%26.69%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AC Oulu (Local): 20.04%; HJK Helsinki (Visit): 55.80%; Draw: 24.16%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.59%EV -10.83%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.46%E -2.00%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.88%EV +1.46%E +0.349%K +0.458%G +0.007%4.1%2026-10-10 13:59
Pinnacle🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV +0.191%E +0.038%K +0.048%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.04%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.68%EV -1.68%E -0.412%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-12 15:50
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.64%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -3.37%E -0.842%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-12 15:25
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -7.37%E -4.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -4.57%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 15:38
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -4.82%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-12 15:24
FanDuel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -5.82%E -1.24%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.07%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 15:44
BetMGM🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 15:59
1xBet🎯4.59I 21.79%NM 20.41%EV -8.02%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.44%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.15%EV -6.27%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 15:59
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.97%EV -6.27%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 15:10
LowVig.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.83%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.99%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.83%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.99%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 15:59
BetUS🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.83%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.99%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 15:59
BetAnything🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -3.82%E -0.795%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.83%EV -5.69%E -3.37%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.99%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 15:59
GTbets🎯4.59I 21.79%NM 20.26%EV -8.02%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.34%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.40%EV -7.96%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 15:15
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -7.37%E -4.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-12 15:59
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -10.16%E -6.31%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 15:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -9.41%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-12 15:24
betano_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.60%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -9.41%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 15:59
Bet Right🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -7.37%E -4.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -9.41%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 15:24
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.75%EV -8.48%E -5.17%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.41%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 15:59
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -13.23%E -3.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -9.41%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-12 15:24
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -15.84%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -9.41%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 15:59
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 15:35
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 15:34
Bet Victor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-12 15:34
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
TABtouch🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
Unibet (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:55
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:53
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
ATG (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -13.84%E -3.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.36%EV -6.81%E -4.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 12:54
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -11.83%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.92%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-12 15:24
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-12 15:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-12 15:59
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-12 15:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-12 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -9.83%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.78%EV -10.16%E -6.31%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-12 15:59
Coral🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -11.83%E -2.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -10.16%E -6.31%K -16.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-12 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -15.84%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.35%EV -8.48%E -5.17%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -11.82%E -3.24%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 12:54
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -15.84%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.35%EV -8.48%E -5.17%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -11.82%E -3.24%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 12:54
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -1.81%E -0.370%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-12 15:39
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -1.81%E -0.370%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.25%E -3.72%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-12 15:49
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -13.23%E -3.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -9.60%E -5.92%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 15:59
LiveScore Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -15.84%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -9.04%E -5.55%K -14.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-12 12:54
Virgin Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -15.84%E -3.77%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -9.04%E -5.55%K -14.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-12 12:55
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.82%E -1.70%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.84%EV -7.92%E -4.80%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -14.24%E -4.01%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-12 15:59
PMU (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.32%EV -19.85%E -4.96%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.32%EV -12.39%E -7.89%K -21.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.36%EV -15.45%E -4.41%K -6.18%G +0.000%17.3%2026-10-12 12:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 19.81%EV -14.84%E -3.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 56.13%EV -16.29%E -10.86%K -32.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.06%EV -15.45%E -4.41%K -6.18%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-12 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-10-12 15:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-12 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-12 15:40
Matchbook◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-12 15:55