The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Italy v Northern Ireland

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Italy (Local)

Prediction 75.83%1.32fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -10.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.83%75.82%75.82%77.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2883.33%80.11%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northern Ireland (Visit)

Prediction 7.29%13.71fair odd
EV +11.19%
Edge +0.734%
Kelly +0.785%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 15.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.29%7.27%7.28%8.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5012.7913.0015.259.52%7.82%7.69%6.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.88%5.92fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.255%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.57%16.91%16.90%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.495.506.0020.00%18.21%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Italy (Local): 75.83%; Northern Ireland (Visit): 7.29%; Draw: 16.88%. For Northern Ireland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.90%EV -3.70%E -2.91%K -13.69%G +0.000%15.25I 6.56%NM 6.40%EV +11.19%E +0.734%K +0.785%G +0.088%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.69%EV -1.26%E -0.215%K -0.259%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-26 19:24
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.31%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.04%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV +9.37%E +0.625%K +0.669%G +0.063%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -2.94%E -0.512%K -0.620%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 18:28
BetOnline.ag🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.70%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.13%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.78%EV +3.90%E +0.274%K +0.294%G +0.011%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.52%EV -1.26%E -0.215%K -0.259%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-26 18:24
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.91%EV -2.94%E -2.30%K -10.49%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.20%EV -1.57%E -0.116%K -0.125%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.90%EV -2.94%E -0.512%K -0.620%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-26 19:14
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.21%EV -3.70%E -2.91%K -13.69%G +0.000%13.30I 7.52%NM 7.28%EV -3.02%E -0.227%K -0.246%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.52%EV -1.09%E -0.186%K -0.224%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-26 19:34
ReBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.62%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.13%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.29%EV -3.39%E -0.256%K -0.277%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.09%EV +1.28%E +0.213%K +0.255%G +0.003%3.6%2026-03-26 19:04
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.70%EV -2.94%E -2.30%K -10.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.45%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.85%EV -2.94%E -0.512%K -0.620%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 19:34
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.98%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.36%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.65%EV -2.94%E -0.512%K -0.620%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-26 15:39
TAB🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.83%EV -2.94%E -2.30%K -10.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-26 19:19
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.56%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 08:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.56%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 13:00
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.56%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.56%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 18:43
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.56%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 15:19
Dabble (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.80%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.25%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -11.38%E -2.17%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 19:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.95%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -11.38%E -2.17%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-26 19:34
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 18:55
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 19:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 18:54
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 19:19
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.31%EV -9.00%E -7.50%K -45.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -5.21%E -0.401%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-26 19:15
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.81%EV -3.70%E -2.91%K -13.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV -8.86%E -0.709%K -0.770%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -8.85%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-26 19:19
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.81%EV -3.70%E -2.91%K -13.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV -8.86%E -0.709%K -0.770%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.59%EV -8.85%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-26 19:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.71%EV -8.25%E -6.82%K -39.27%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.33%EV -8.86%E -0.709%K -0.770%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.96%EV -8.85%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-26 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.11%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -12.50%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.11%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -12.50%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 19:15
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.11%EV -5.21%E -4.17%K -20.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -12.50%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -7.16%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 19:14
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.04%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -12.50%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV +1.28%E +0.213%K +0.255%G +0.003%7.0%2026-03-26 19:20
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.15%EV -8.25%E -6.82%K -39.27%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -12.50%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.17%EV -3.79%E -0.665%K -0.806%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-26 19:20
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.00%EV -5.97%E -4.82%K -24.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -12.50%E -1.04%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -15.60%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 19:35
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.31%EV -4.46%E -3.54%K -17.13%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -19.79%E -1.80%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.18%EV -8.01%E -1.47%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-26 19:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.73%E -5.47%K -29.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -19.79%E -1.80%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV +1.28%E +0.213%K +0.255%G +0.003%7.1%2026-03-26 19:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.38%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -23.44%E -2.23%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -2.10%E -0.362%K -0.437%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-26 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.15%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-03-26 19:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.15%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-03-26 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.15%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-03-26 19:40
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 78.15%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.97%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%1.6%2026-03-26 19:40