The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Spain v England

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spain (Local)

Prediction 40.51%2.47fair odd
EV -0.762%
Edge -0.311%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.44%40.51%40.51%42.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.4544.44%41.81%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

England (Visit)

Prediction 30.68%3.26fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.571%
Kelly -0.831%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.73%30.68%30.68%31.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.902.982.953.2034.48%33.52%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.82%3.47fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.596%
Kelly -0.844%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.98%28.82%28.82%29.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.183.133.4032.26%31.50%32.00%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spain (Local): 40.51%; England (Visit): 30.68%; Draw: 28.82%. For Spain (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.762%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -0.762%E -0.311%K -0.526%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -7.96%E -2.65%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -7.79%E -2.43%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 21:19
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -0.762%E -0.311%K -0.526%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -7.96%E -2.65%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -9.23%E -2.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-14 21:19
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.03%E -3.80%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 21:19
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.03%E -3.80%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -2.79%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.03%E -3.80%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -10.67%E -3.44%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-14 21:39
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -8.86%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -1.83%E -0.571%K -0.831%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -2.03%E -0.596%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.99%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%5.2%2026-07-14 22:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.99%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%5.2%2026-07-14 22:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%6.0%2026-07-14 22:04