The School of Odds

Spain v Argentina

2026-07-19 19:00 UTC — FIFA World Cup

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Spain (Local)

Prediction 41.85%2.39fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.10%41.85%41.85%43.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.3545%43%43%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Argentina (Visit)

Prediction 28.82%3.47fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.60%28.82%28.82%29.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.263.253.3031%31%31%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.33%3.41fair odd
EV -0.287%
Edge -0.084%
Kelly -0.120%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%29.33%29.33%30.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.023.4033%32%33%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -1.65%E -0.702%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -9.09%E -2.93%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 21:19
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -1.65%E -0.702%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -10.55%E -3.46%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-14 21:19
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -3.74%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -12.02%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-14 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -3.74%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.33%E -1.95%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -12.02%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-14 21:39
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -3.74%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.77%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -12.02%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-14 21:19
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -7.93%E -3.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -4.89%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.287%E -0.084%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-14 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%10.0%2026-07-14 22:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%10.0%2026-07-14 22:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%10.0%2026-07-14 22:04