Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

England v Ghana

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 20:00 UTC

Final: England 0–0 Ghana

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 80.93%1.24fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -9.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.92%80.83%80.87%83.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.2187.72%85.32%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ghana (Visit)

Prediction 5.92%16.90fair odd
EV +18.35%
Edge +0.918%
Kelly +0.966%
Growth +0.177%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.89%5.99%5.93%7.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0016.1516.0020.007.69%6.19%6.25%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.16%7.60fair odd
EV +11.83%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.187%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.51%13.18%13.20%15.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.297.508.5016.67%13.72%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 80.93%; Ghana (Visit): 5.92%; Draw: 13.16%. For Ghana (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.90. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 83.60%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%EV +18.35%E +0.918%K +0.966%G +0.177%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.51%EV +11.83%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.187%2.2%2026-06-23 19:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 83.60%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%EV +18.35%E +0.918%K +0.966%G +0.177%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.51%EV +11.83%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.187%2.2%2026-06-23 19:10
LeoVegas🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.68%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.33%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%4.3%2026-06-23 19:10
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.68%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.33%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%4.3%2026-06-23 19:30
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.68%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.33%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%4.3%2026-06-23 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.68%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.33%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%4.3%2026-06-23 19:10
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -6.94%E -6.03%K -46.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%5.0%2026-06-23 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -6.94%E -6.03%K -46.23%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%5.0%2026-06-23 19:50
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.39%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV +5.25%E +0.656%K +0.750%G +0.039%6.5%2026-06-23 19:30
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 82.19%EV -3.70%E -3.11%K -19.46%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.43%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.38%EV +3.93%E +0.498%K +0.570%G +0.022%2.2%2026-06-23 19:50
BetAnything🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.43%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.21%EV +3.93%E +0.498%K +0.570%G +0.022%3.7%2026-06-23 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.60%EV -14.19%E -0.979%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.34%EV +1.96%E +0.253%K +0.291%G +0.006%4.5%2026-06-23 13:40
1xBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 80.45%EV -2.08%E -1.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%14.40I 6.94%NM 6.76%EV -14.79%E -1.03%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.61I 13.14%NM 12.79%EV +0.119%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%2.7%2026-06-23 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 82.16%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%19.40I 5.15%NM 5.00%EV +14.80%E +0.763%K +0.804%G +0.119%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.84%EV -0.670%E -0.089%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-23 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 82.16%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%19.40I 5.15%NM 5.00%EV +14.80%E +0.763%K +0.804%G +0.119%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.84%EV -0.670%E -0.089%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-23 19:50
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 81.33%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.44%G +0.000%17.25I 5.80%NM 5.66%EV +2.08%E +0.121%K +0.128%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.01%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%2.5%2026-06-23 19:08
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.23%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.78%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-23 18:10
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.85%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.37%EV -23.07%E -1.77%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.78%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-23 19:50
BetUS🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.36%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-23 15:40
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.03%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +6.52%E +0.362%K +0.383%G +0.025%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-23 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.43%EV +3.56%E +0.203%K +0.216%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-23 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-23 09:49
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-23 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -17.15%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-23 13:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 19:30
TABtouch🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 19:30
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -1.33%E -0.177%K -0.204%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-23 19:30
BetMGM🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.85%EV -3.70%E -3.11%K -19.46%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.04%EV -20.11%E -1.49%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV -4.62%E -0.637%K -0.739%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-23 19:50
Everygame🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.42%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.03%EV -4.62%E -0.637%K -0.739%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-23 19:30
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.69%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.02%EV -4.62%E -0.637%K -0.739%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-23 19:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.08%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.63%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.29%EV -5.27%E -0.733%K -0.851%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-23 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.23%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.02%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 13:39
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.23%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.02%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 19:10
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.23%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.02%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-23 19:10
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.78%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.62%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-23 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-23 19:10
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-23 19:30
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.18%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-23 19:30
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-23 19:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -23.07%E -1.77%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 19:30
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -23.07%E -1.77%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -23.07%E -1.77%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 19:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 12:20
Fanatics🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.13%E -5.28%K -38.29%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.91%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 12:20
GTbets🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.87%EV -3.70%E -3.11%K -19.46%G +0.000%14.86I 6.73%NM 6.40%EV -12.06%E -0.812%K -0.870%G +0.000%6.92I 14.45%NM 13.73%EV -8.96%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-23 19:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.47%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV -5.32%E -0.332%K -0.355%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.65%EV -9.22%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-23 19:29
Caesars🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -17.15%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -11.19%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-23 15:46
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.08%EV -2.89%E -2.41%K -14.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -14.48%E -2.23%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-23 07:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.94%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -14.48%E -2.23%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-23 19:10
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.94%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV +0.600%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -14.48%E -2.23%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-23 19:30
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -4.51%E -3.82%K -25.04%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -11.24%E -0.749%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -14.48%E -2.23%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 13:50
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.32%E -4.54%K -31.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -23.07%E -1.77%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.48%E -2.23%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-23 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.41%EV -3.70%E -3.11%K -19.46%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -17.15%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -17.77%E -2.84%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-23 08:00
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -3.70%E -3.11%K -19.46%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.62%EV -17.15%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -21.06%E -3.51%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-23 08:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -7.74%E -6.79%K -55.32%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.40%EV -17.15%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -21.06%E -3.51%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-23 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 83.09%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.16%0.3%2026-06-23 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 83.09%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.16%0.3%2026-06-23 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.20I 83.33%NM 83.09%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.75%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.16%0.3%2026-06-23 19:50
Matchbook1.20I 83.33%NM 82.84%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.73%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-06-23 19:50
Smarkets1.19I 84.03%NM 83.38%21.98I 4.55%NM 4.51%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%0.8%2026-06-23 19:50