The School of Odds
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Yate Town FC v Chippenham Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:45 UTC

Final: Yate Town FC 0–0 Chippenham Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yate Town FC (Local)

Prediction 39.27%2.55fair odd
EV -5.76%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.21%39.39%39.09%40.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.302.4045.45%43.80%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chippenham Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 33.93%2.95fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.847%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.65%33.83%33.93%35.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.702.9040.00%37.09%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%26.78%26.98%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.423.353.6030.30%29.27%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yate Town FC (Local): 39.27%; Chippenham Town FC (Visit): 33.93%; Draw: 26.80%. For Chippenham Town FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.76%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.70%E -2.44%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -3.51%E -0.974%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 08:09
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.76%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.51%E -0.974%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.76%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.51%E -0.974%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 08:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.76%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.51%E -0.974%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 09:05
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -5.76%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -4.85%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 13:32
Codere (IT)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -5.76%E -2.40%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.70%E -2.44%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 06:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -7.72%E -3.28%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -1.61%E -0.555%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.19%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -7.72%E -3.28%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.00%E -1.79%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.51%E -0.974%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 06:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -10.09%E -3.81%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -7.53%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.77%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 09:15
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.77%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 09:20
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -11.79%E -4.53%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 06:50
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -9.68%E -4.21%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -15.18%E -6.07%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.55%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-18 13:34
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:24
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:25
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:24
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 08:24
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -13.61%E -6.19%K -11.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.21%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.