The School of Odds
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Worksop Town FC v FC United of Manchester

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:15 UTC

Final: Worksop Town FC 0–3 FC United of Manchester

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worksop Town FC (Local)

Prediction 57.17%1.75fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.37%57.24%57.18%58.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.581.6965.36%63.28%63.29%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC United of Manchester (Visit)

Prediction 21.89%4.57fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.327%
Kelly -0.421%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.78%21.87%21.90%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.124.104.5026.67%24.27%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.94%4.78fair odd
EV +5.32%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 5.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%20.89%20.92%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.444.505.0325.00%22.54%22.22%19.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worksop Town FC (Local): 57.17%; FC United of Manchester (Visit): 21.89%; Draw: 20.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.86%EV -7.39%E -4.56%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.96%EV +5.32%E +1.06%K +1.32%G +0.070%4.9%2026-10-03 11:15
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.27%EV -5.68%E -3.44%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.505%E +0.105%K +0.133%G +0.001%5.8%2026-10-03 14:05
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.24%EV -6.25%E -3.81%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -3.68%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-03 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.54%EV -3.39%E -2.01%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 12:15
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.53%E -5.33%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.47%E -0.327%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 14:05
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.53%E -5.33%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.47%E -0.327%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 14:02
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -7.96%E -4.95%K -13.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -5.19%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-03 14:05
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -12.54%E -8.19%K -23.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.23%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -5.78%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.42%EV -5.10%E -3.07%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.87%E -1.79%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -7.39%E -4.56%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -17.89%E -4.77%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -9.34%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -7.39%E -4.56%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -17.89%E -4.77%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -9.34%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -10.25%E -6.53%K -17.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -9.34%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 13:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.53%E -5.33%K -14.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -16.80%E -4.42%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -9.34%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.53%E -5.33%K -14.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -16.80%E -4.42%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -9.34%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.37%EV -10.82%E -6.94%K -19.32%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.57%EV -9.14%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.06%EV -11.01%E -2.59%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 11:08
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.07%EV -9.68%E -6.12%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -12.06%E -2.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-03 14:01
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.06%EV -9.68%E -6.12%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%EV -6.95%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.72%EV -13.11%E -3.16%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-03 14:09
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.06%EV -9.68%E -6.12%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.21%EV -6.95%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.72%EV -13.11%E -3.16%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-03 14:09
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -10.25%E -6.53%K -17.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -12.42%E -3.11%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.