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Worksop Town FC v AFC Telford United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Worksop Town FC (Local)
Prediction 44.38%2.25fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.07%44.54%44.43%45.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.002.1551.28%49.46%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AFC Telford United (Visit)
Prediction 30.02%3.33fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.48%30.18%30.07%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.103.2035.71%32.56%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.60%3.91fair odd
EV +2.41%
Edge +0.602%
Kelly +0.802%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.58%25.28%25.51%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.543.454.0029.41%28.25%28.99%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worksop Town FC (Local): 44.38%; AFC Telford United (Visit): 30.02%; Draw: 25.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -15.95%E -5.70%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV +2.41%E +0.602%K +0.802%G +0.019% | 10.7% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -9.02%E -4.40%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.71%E -0.714%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-22 18:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -10.35%E -5.12%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.96%EV -12.35%E -4.23%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.30%EV -4.76%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-22 18:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.70%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 31.26%EV -14.15%E -4.95%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.03%EV -4.76%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-22 18:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.66%EV -7.25%E -3.47%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -5.27%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-22 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -5.27%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-22 16:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.83%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-22 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-22 18:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.02%E -4.40%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-22 16:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -12.95%E -4.46%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.39%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-22 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%EV -10.35%E -5.12%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-22 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%EV -10.35%E -5.12%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-22 16:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -6.94%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.67%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-22 16:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -13.46%E -6.90%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -12.95%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-22 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.