The School of Odds
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Worcester City FC v Knowle FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:47 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester City FC (Local)

Prediction 54.61%1.83fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.89%54.61%54.29%58.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.531.7765.36%62.94%65.36%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Knowle FC (Visit)

Prediction 22.11%4.52fair odd
EV -0.503%
Edge -0.112%
Kelly -0.144%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.85%22.11%22.30%24.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.354.504.5025.97%22.99%22.22%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.28%4.30fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.698%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.78%23.28%23.41%23.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.064.104.2026.67%24.62%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester City FC (Local): 54.61%; Knowle FC (Visit): 22.11%; Draw: 23.28%. For Knowle FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -0.503%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.89%EV -3.34%E -1.89%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -13.77%E -3.53%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.11%EV -5.73%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 18:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.52%E -3.19%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -6.89%E -1.72%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.07%E -3.53%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.17%EV -8.25%E -4.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -14.88%E -3.86%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 18:44
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.98%EV -10.44%E -6.36%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -2.23%E -0.532%K -0.698%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.24%EV -10.98%E -6.74%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.19%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 23.57%EV -11.08%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 18:44
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.74%EV -12.62%E -7.89%K -21.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.36%EV -12.71%E -3.39%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-08 18:44
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.37%EV -16.44%E -10.75%K -31.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.85%EV -0.503%E -0.112%K -0.144%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -4.56%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.