Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester City FC v Chorley FC

2026-10-20 18:45 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester City FC (Local)

Prediction 35.63%2.81fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.87%35.76%35.35%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.572.632.7042.02%38.93%38.02%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chorley FC (Visit)

Prediction 38.26%2.61fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.42%38.11%38.47%40.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.302.5544.44%42.63%43.48%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -0.775%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.277%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.17%26.13%26.18%27.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.313.8031.25%29.60%30.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Worcester City FC (Local): 35.63%; Chorley FC (Visit): 38.26%; Draw: 26.11%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.80, with an expected value of -0.775%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -3.80%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-19 20:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.58%E -2.11%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -5.58%E -2.11%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.12%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -0.775%E -0.204%K -0.277%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 20:00
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 19:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -6.29%E -2.39%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -9.14%E -3.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.28%EV -13.92%E -6.19%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.17%EV -2.08%E -0.555%K -0.757%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -9.14%E -3.59%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -13.92%E -6.19%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -6.00%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-19 20:00
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -10.21%E -4.05%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -2.44%E -0.957%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 20:00
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.64%EV -10.21%E -4.05%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -2.44%E -0.957%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 19:59
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -10.09%E -4.29%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 19:58
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 20:00
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.93%E -4.37%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 19:59
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.78%EV -13.42%E -5.52%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.78%EV -7.03%E -2.89%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.44%EV -11.74%E -3.47%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 20:00
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -14.49%E -6.04%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -16.44%E -5.14%K -7.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 21:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.60%EV -15.20%E -6.39%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.60%EV -8.94%E -3.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.80%EV -15.14%E -4.66%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-19 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.