The School of Odds
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Worcester City FC v Chorley FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Worcester City FC 1–0 Chorley FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester City FC (Local)

Prediction 36.52%2.74fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.72%36.51%36.49%37.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.552.552.6542.02%39.15%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chorley FC (Visit)

Prediction 37.48%2.67fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.36%37.31%37.44%39.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.372.402.5543.86%42.22%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%26.18%26.07%27.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.393.383.6530.77%29.52%29.59%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester City FC (Local): 36.52%; Chorley FC (Visit): 37.48%; Draw: 25.99%. For Worcester City FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -3.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:14
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:14
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:14
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -3.21%E -1.21%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.20%EV -14.54%E -6.38%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.23%E -4.31%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 03:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.04%E -1.94%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.29%E -2.52%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.43%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.67%EV -6.86%E -2.69%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -7.04%E -2.84%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -5.13%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 11:40
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -6.86%E -2.69%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -4.41%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 18:00
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -6.86%E -2.69%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -4.41%E -1.73%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 18:00
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.69%E -3.48%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 11:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -5.13%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.75%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.52%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.03%E -2.58%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 11:35
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.62%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -10.33%E -2.99%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 11:39
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 11:40
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.51%E -4.29%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.04%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.63%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 11:37
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.78%EV -11.25%E -4.63%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.78%EV -8.91%E -3.67%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.44%EV -12.15%E -3.59%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 20:00
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.60%EV -13.07%E -5.49%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.60%EV -10.79%E -4.53%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.80%EV -15.53%E -4.78%K -6.90%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-19 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.