The School of Odds
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Wimborne Town FC v Chelmsford City FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Wimborne Town FC 1–0 Chelmsford City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wimborne Town FC (Local)

Prediction 27.38%3.65fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.83%27.61%27.49%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.453.5032.26%29.57%28.99%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chelmsford City FC (Visit)

Prediction 46.14%2.17fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -5.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.38%46.08%46.10%48.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.911.922.0554.64%52.42%52.08%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.24%26.32%26.41%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.503.6030.77%28.88%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wimborne Town FC (Local): 27.38%; Chelmsford City FC (Visit): 46.14%; Draw: 26.48%. For Wimborne Town FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -4.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.18%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.41%E -2.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 08:20
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.18%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.71%E -3.86%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 12:10
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.18%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.71%E -3.86%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 12:10
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.57%EV -15.10%E -8.20%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.57%EV -15.10%E -8.20%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.90%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.57%EV -15.10%E -8.20%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -5.55%E -1.61%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.70%EV -15.56%E -8.50%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -7.32%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -6.79%E -3.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 07:45
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -10.94%E -5.67%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:35
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -10.02%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 12:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.02%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 12:10
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.02%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.93%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -10.02%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.57%EV -9.56%E -4.88%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 07:40
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -11.03%E -3.39%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -10.02%E -5.14%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 07:39
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.71%E -3.86%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -4.67%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:50
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.96%EV -15.13%E -4.88%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.38%EV -11.87%E -6.21%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -13.94%E -4.29%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-17 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.