The School of Odds
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West Ham United v Brentford

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Ham United (Local)

Prediction 32.55%3.07fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.782%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.59%32.63%32.34%34.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.812.803.0038.46%35.64%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brentford (Visit)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.59%39.93%40.17%40.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.322.352.4247.62%43.06%42.55%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.92%27.44%27.49%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.343.403.5034.72%29.91%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Ham United (Local): 32.55%; Brentford (Visit): 40.00%; Draw: 27.45%. For West Ham United (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -2.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -2.34%E -0.782%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.99%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -5.86%E -1.71%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-20 05:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -2.67%E -0.893%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.29%EV -4.39%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-20 13:15
1xBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.38%EV -3.00%E -1.01%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.04%EV -3.59%E -1.49%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-20 13:15
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.60%E -1.93%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.33%EV -7.99%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-20 05:35
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -6.25%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -3.19%E -1.32%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -5.31%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-20 13:10
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -6.25%E -2.17%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -3.19%E -1.32%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -5.31%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-20 13:10
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -8.85%E -3.16%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -3.99%E -1.66%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.94%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-20 05:35
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.48%E -3.81%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.99%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-20 13:10
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.48%E -3.81%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.99%E -5.45%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-20 05:35
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -12.11%E -4.49%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -5.99%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-20 05:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 31.59%EV -14.39%E -5.47%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.56%EV -15.99%E -7.62%K -14.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.85%EV -20.96%E -7.28%K -11.15%G +0.000%20.4%2026-02-20 12:40
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -14.71%E -5.62%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -7.99%E -3.48%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -9.43%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-20 05:34
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.40%EV -15.37%E -5.91%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.59%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.01%EV -14.92%E -4.81%K -7.10%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-20 05:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.96%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.68%13.6%2026-02-20 10:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.96%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.68%13.6%2026-02-20 10:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 54.40%2.32I 43.10%NM 24.86%2.78I 35.97%NM 20.74%73.4%2026-02-20 10:40