The School of Odds
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Wealdstone FC v Worthing FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Wealdstone FC 3–0 Worthing FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wealdstone FC (Local)

Prediction 33.45%2.99fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.63%33.59%33.81%35.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.542.702.702.8839.37%37.03%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worthing FC (Visit)

Prediction 41.51%2.41fair odd
EV -0.372%
Edge -0.155%
Kelly -0.265%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.41%41.58%41.31%43.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.152.4048.78%45.98%46.51%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.04%3.99fair odd
EV +0.166%
Edge +0.042%
Kelly +0.055%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.57%24.83%24.88%25.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.563.504.0028.99%28.09%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wealdstone FC (Local): 33.45%; Worthing FC (Visit): 41.51%; Draw: 25.04%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.166%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.45%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -12.83%E -6.11%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV +0.166%E +0.042%K +0.055%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -11.37%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -0.372%E -0.155%K -0.265%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 13:30
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.52%E -1.97%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.09%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 13:30
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 35.18%EV -15.05%E -5.92%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 40.80%EV -9.09%E -4.15%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.02%EV -6.85%E -1.84%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -3.67%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -7.35%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:55
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -3.67%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -7.35%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:53
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -4.68%E -1.64%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.60%E -2.93%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -8.60%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -8.60%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 13:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.63%EV -4.68%E -1.64%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.34%EV -13.66%E -6.57%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 13:39
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:30
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.93%EV -12.04%E -4.58%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.57%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 13:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.93%EV -12.04%E -4.58%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.57%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 13:30
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 13:39
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.67%E -3.94%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 13:30
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.04%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -14.90%E -7.27%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.73%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:54
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:54
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:55
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.91%EV -9.69%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.75%E -5.00%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -13.61%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.