The School of Odds
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Uxbridge FC v Hungerford Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Uxbridge FC 3–1 Hungerford Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Uxbridge FC (Local)

Prediction 57.66%1.73fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -7.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%57.71%57.71%59.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.581.6565.36%63.19%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hungerford Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 20.32%4.92fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.560%
Kelly -0.707%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.28%20.31%20.30%21.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.324.204.7924.39%23.15%23.81%20.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.03%4.54fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.334%
Kelly +0.426%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.72%21.99%21.99%22.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.134.104.6125.64%24.20%24.39%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Uxbridge FC (Local): 57.66%; Hungerford Town FC (Visit): 20.32%; Draw: 22.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.33%EV -7.17%E -4.45%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.94%EV -2.68%E -0.560%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.72%EV +1.54%E +0.334%K +0.426%G +0.007%4.7%2026-10-03 13:55
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -8.57%E -1.91%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -0.885%E -0.197%K -0.253%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 13:40
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -4.87%E -2.95%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.57%E -1.91%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -3.09%E -0.702%K -0.908%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 13:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.06%EV -6.02%E -3.69%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.93%EV -3.49%E -0.735%K -0.932%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -5.29%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.28%EV -5.44%E -3.32%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -8.57%E -1.91%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.85%EV -5.29%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-03 13:40
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -4.51%E -0.959%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -5.29%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -14.67%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -5.29%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-03 13:40
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -8.90%E -5.63%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -8.90%E -5.63%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -8.90%E -5.63%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.63%EV -9.48%E -6.04%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -16.70%E -4.07%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -9.70%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.47%EV -11.78%E -7.70%K -22.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -6.54%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.09%EV -10.80%E -2.67%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.19%EV -13.65%E -3.21%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 13:39
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -14.67%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -14.67%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 13:40
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -14.67%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -7.75%E -4.84%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -14.67%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 13:40
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -10.63%E -6.86%K -19.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -8.57%E -1.91%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.61%EV -11.78%E -7.70%K -22.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.36%EV -12.03%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -11.90%E -2.97%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-03 13:45
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -11.78%E -7.70%K -22.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -6.54%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -14.10%E -3.62%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.97%EV -11.78%E -7.70%K -22.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -6.54%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -14.10%E -3.62%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.