The School of Odds
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Uxbridge FC v Hornchurch FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Uxbridge FC 0–4 Hornchurch FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Uxbridge FC (Local)

Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV +7.83%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.170%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.47%23.78%23.63%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.304.164.004.6030.30%24.03%25.00%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hornchurch FC (Visit)

Prediction 55.18%1.81fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -6.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.39%54.79%54.89%59.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.631.7366.67%62.65%61.35%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.38%4.68fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.324%
Kelly +0.411%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.14%21.42%21.48%23.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.264.304.7526.67%23.49%23.26%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Uxbridge FC (Local): 23.44%; Hornchurch FC (Visit): 55.18%; Draw: 21.38%. For Uxbridge FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV +7.83%E +1.70%K +2.17%G +0.170%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -17.23%E -11.48%K -34.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Bet Victor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -1.55%E -0.369%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:50
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -1.55%E -0.369%K -0.484%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.94%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.14%EV +1.54%E +0.324%K +0.411%G +0.006%4.5%2026-10-17 13:35
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -3.80%E -0.845%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 09:17
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:50
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -11.71%E -7.32%K -19.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 10:19
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.21%EV -13.36%E -8.51%K -23.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.12%EV -19.84%E -5.29%K -7.21%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-17 12:40
1xBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.51%EV -10.05%E -6.17%K -15.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -9.15%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -8.95%E -5.42%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:45
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -9.50%E -5.79%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -8.40%E -5.06%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.95%E -5.42%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 09:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.95%E -5.42%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 09:20
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.95%E -5.42%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 09:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -8.95%E -5.42%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 09:20
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -22.64%E -6.86%K -9.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.39%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -3.80%E -0.845%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 07:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.