Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Uxbridge FC v Hornchurch FC

2026-10-17 14:00 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Uxbridge FC (Local)

Prediction 19.62%5.10fair odd
EV +12.79%
Edge +2.22%
Kelly +2.69%
Growth +0.344%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.60%18.99%19.62%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.674.605.7523.26%21.41%21.74%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hornchurch FC (Visit)

Prediction 58.70%1.70fair odd
EV -8.43%
Edge -5.40%
Kelly -15.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.06%59.31%58.70%61.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.511.501.5666.67%66.15%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.71%21.70%21.68%22.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.304.4025.00%23.40%23.26%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Uxbridge FC (Local): 19.62%; Hornchurch FC (Visit): 58.70%; Draw: 21.68%. For Uxbridge FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.10. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.75, producing a positive expected value of +12.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV +12.79%E +2.22%K +2.69%G +0.344%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -8.43%E -5.40%K -15.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 10:54
1xBet🎯5.04I 19.84%NM 17.94%EV -1.14%E -0.226%K -0.282%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.27%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.79%EV -10.02%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.81%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.30%EV -8.43%E -5.40%K -15.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -4.59%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -11.95%E -7.96%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 10:55
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -10.19%E -6.66%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -8.93%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 10:54
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -10.19%E -6.66%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-15 10:55
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.71%EV -15.66%E -3.64%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.58%EV -10.77%E -7.09%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.71%EV -6.76%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-15 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.