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Truro City FC v Merthyr Town FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Truro City FC (Local)
Prediction 49.13%2.04fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.19%49.10%49.12%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.831.811.9257.80%54.56%55.25%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Merthyr Town FC (Visit)
Prediction 25.93%3.86fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.382%
Kelly -0.519%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.32%25.83%25.95%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.543.503.8029.41%28.23%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.93%4.01fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.642%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.92%25.07%24.93%26.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.613.553.9128.99%27.67%28.17%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Truro City FC (Local): 49.13%; Merthyr Town FC (Visit): 25.93%; Draw: 24.93%. For Merthyr Town FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.67%E -2.95%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -6.50%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.95%EV -6.65%E -3.50%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.25%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-22 18:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.94%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 23.92%EV -2.51%E -0.642%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-22 18:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.25%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-22 18:43 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -4.05%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -13.98%E -4.05%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-22 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -4.05%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -13.98%E -4.05%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-22 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -7.63%E -4.06%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.83%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.24%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.10%E -4.92%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -4.05%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.25%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-22 18:43 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.10%EV -9.60%E -5.22%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -10.24%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.09%E -5.51%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -6.64%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -10.24%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.43%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 25.86%EV -10.27%E -2.97%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 24.71%EV -9.74%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-22 18:43 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.33%EV -11.07%E -6.12%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -11.48%E -3.24%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 16:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -11.56%E -6.42%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -1.45%E -0.382%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -5.25%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-22 18:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -15.00%E -8.67%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -9.23%E -2.64%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -12.73%E -3.64%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-22 18:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.