The School of Odds
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Tonbridge Angels FC v Torquay United FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:02 UTC

Final: Tonbridge Angels FC 0–1 Torquay United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tonbridge Angels FC (Local)

Prediction 35.16%2.84fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.24%35.13%35.11%35.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.572.552.7040.00%38.87%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Torquay United FC (Visit)

Prediction 39.25%2.55fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.27%39.29%40.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.352.382.4145.45%42.63%42.02%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.59%3.91fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.530%
Kelly +0.708%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%25.59%25.61%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.523.503.9929.41%28.39%28.57%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tonbridge Angels FC (Local): 35.16%; Torquay United FC (Visit): 39.25%; Draw: 25.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.44%EV -5.78%E -2.16%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.76%EV -8.55%E -3.67%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.80%EV +2.12%E +0.530%K +0.708%G +0.015%5.3%2026-10-03 11:15
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.80%E -2.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.80%E -2.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -9.72%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -2.75%E -0.723%K -0.981%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 11:45
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.31%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 12:34
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -5.80%E -2.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.86%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 13:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.71%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.89%EV -5.41%E -2.24%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -9.14%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -9.72%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -9.14%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.06%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.39%EV -10.90%E -4.80%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:08
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.72%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.72%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.72%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -9.72%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -13.65%E -6.20%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -10.42%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-03 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -7.76%E -3.30%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -11.69%E -5.19%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.98%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.