The School of Odds
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Thame United FC v Eastbourne Borough FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Thame United FC 0–1 Eastbourne Borough FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thame United FC (Local)

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.587%
Kelly -0.783%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.28%24.62%24.40%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.604.0030.30%27.66%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eastbourne Borough FC (Visit)

Prediction 54.52%1.83fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.65%54.44%54.51%56.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.681.671.7761.73%59.36%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.07%4.75fair odd
EV +5.33%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.05%20.94%21.09%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.264.185.0025.00%23.50%23.95%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thame United FC (Local): 24.41%; Eastbourne Borough FC (Visit): 54.52%; Draw: 21.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.87I 25.84%NM 24.61%EV -5.52%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -7.86%E -4.65%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV +5.33%E +1.07%K +1.33%G +0.071%5.0%2026-10-03 13:45
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV +0.067%E +0.014%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 13:55
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -14.55%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.90%EV -3.50%E -1.98%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -3.09%E -0.672%K -0.859%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.35%E -0.587%K -0.783%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -6.77%E -3.96%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -6.01%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -7.32%E -4.30%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.20%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -19.44%E -5.89%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.42%EV -7.32%E -4.30%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.58%EV -8.78%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-03 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.23%EV -4.04%E -2.30%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -9.41%E -2.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 11:10
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -10.04%E -6.09%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.52%E -2.74%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 12:24
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -10.04%E -6.09%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.52%E -2.74%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 12:23
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -19.44%E -5.89%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -5.68%E -3.28%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -11.52%E -2.74%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:55
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -19.44%E -5.89%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -5.68%E -3.28%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -11.52%E -2.74%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:55
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -19.44%E -5.89%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -5.68%E -3.28%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -11.52%E -2.74%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 23.28%EV -6.25%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.18%EV -11.68%E -7.21%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.54%EV -12.57%E -3.03%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:54
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.44%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -13.63%E -3.32%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.91%EV -11.68%E -7.21%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -15.73%E -3.93%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-03 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.