The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tadley Calleva FC v Aldershot Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Tadley Calleva FC 0–2 Aldershot Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tadley Calleva FC (Local)

Prediction 17.83%5.61fair odd
EV +21.27%
Edge +3.13%
Kelly +3.67%
Growth +0.780%

assuming max odds 6.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.62%17.68%17.74%21.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.255.044.786.8023.53%19.86%20.94%14.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aldershot Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 62.96%1.59fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -6.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.62%63.25%62.97%67.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.471.481.5372.99%67.89%67.34%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.20%5.21fair odd
EV +0.822%
Edge +0.156%
Kelly +0.193%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%19.07%19.29%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.434.425.2524.39%22.55%22.65%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tadley Calleva FC (Local): 17.83%; Aldershot Town FC (Visit): 62.96%; Draw: 19.20%. For Tadley Calleva FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.62%EV +21.27%E +3.13%K +3.67%G +0.780%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.09%EV -13.11%E -9.50%K -34.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -7.82%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:30
NordicBet🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.62%EV +21.27%E +3.13%K +3.67%G +0.780%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.09%EV -13.11%E -9.50%K -34.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.29%EV -7.82%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:30
1xBet🎯5.73I 17.45%NM 15.77%EV +2.19%E +0.381%K +0.462%G +0.010%1.37I 72.99%NM 65.97%EV -13.74%E -10.03%K -37.14%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.26%EV -4.94%E -0.998%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 18:35
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.66%EV -1.92%E -0.348%K -0.426%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.06%EV -9.96%E -6.97%K -23.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -8.78%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 18:35
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -1.92%E -0.348%K -0.426%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -11.85%E -8.47%K -29.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -19.34%E -4.61%K -6.04%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-20 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -6.37%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.33%E -6.48%K -21.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -6.37%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.33%E -6.48%K -21.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Neds🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -6.37%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.33%E -6.48%K -21.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -6.37%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.33%E -6.48%K -21.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -13.58%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -7.27%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.62%EV -4.30%E -2.83%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.36%EV -11.66%E -2.54%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 18:35
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -10.83%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.13%EV -9.96%E -6.97%K -23.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -7.82%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 18:35
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -10.83%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.37%EV -11.85%E -8.47%K -29.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.17%EV -16.85%E -3.89%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-20 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -14.40%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.45%EV -6.19%E -4.15%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -9.74%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 18:30
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.13%EV -15.29%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.56%EV -9.96%E -6.97%K -23.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV +0.822%E +0.156%K +0.193%G +0.002%10.0%2026-10-20 18:30
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 10:40
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:49
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -17.97%E -3.91%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -3.67%E -2.40%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -21.26%E -5.19%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 06:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -24.21%E -5.70%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.82%EV -6.82%E -4.61%K -14.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -3.98%E -0.796%K -0.995%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.