The School of Odds
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Sutton United FC v Truro City FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:01 UTC

Final: Sutton United FC 1–0 Truro City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sutton United FC (Local)

Prediction 43.21%2.31fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.36%43.25%43.23%44.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.102.082.2048.78%47.71%48.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Truro City FC (Visit)

Prediction 30.17%3.31fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.91%30.21%30.22%31.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.053.103.2034.72%32.77%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.28%26.54%26.55%27.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.303.6031.25%29.93%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sutton United FC (Local): 43.21%; Truro City FC (Visit): 30.17%; Draw: 26.62%. For Truro City FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -3.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.16%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 13:59
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.16%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 17:20
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.91%EV -7.62%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:59
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:00
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.47%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -7.99%E -2.62%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 14:00
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -4.16%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 14:00
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -11.01%E -3.73%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 13:57
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.52%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.04%EV -10.12%E -4.87%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:10
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:10
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:10
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:10
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:10
betPARX🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.51%EV -10.99%E -5.33%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.48%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-16 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.50%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 17:09
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.51%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.26%EV -13.12%E -4.56%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.23%EV -14.81%E -4.63%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-17 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.