The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Stafford Rangers FC v Gateshead FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:46 UTC

Final: Stafford Rangers FC 5–0 Gateshead FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stafford Rangers FC (Local)

Prediction 39.30%2.54fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.11%39.22%39.97%40.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.302.282.5044.44%43.39%43.86%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gateshead FC (Visit)

Prediction 34.75%2.88fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.967%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%34.85%34.17%37.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.672.732.8041.67%37.43%36.63%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%25.93%25.87%28.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.363.303.8031.25%29.77%30.30%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stafford Rangers FC (Local): 39.30%; Gateshead FC (Visit): 34.75%; Draw: 25.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -1.74%E -0.697%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -13.13%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -3.71%E -1.51%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -8.96%E -3.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -15.67%E -4.82%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:45
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -3.71%E -1.51%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -8.96%E -3.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -15.67%E -4.82%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.55%EV -7.64%E -3.25%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.97%EV -14.87%E -6.07%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 11:40
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.49%EV -5.83%E -2.15%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.86%EV -2.43%E -0.647%K -0.881%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.18%E -2.29%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 18:25
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -11.39%E -4.47%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 18:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -16.61%E -6.92%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -1.39%E -0.367%K -0.498%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:20
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -8.61%E -3.28%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -8.61%E -3.28%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-20 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -8.96%E -3.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 18:25
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -8.96%E -3.42%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-20 18:25
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:29
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -10.39%E -4.56%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.62%EV -4.44%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -16.96%E -5.30%K -7.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -11.57%E -5.14%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -2.71%E -0.967%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 11:35
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -11.57%E -5.14%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -2.71%E -0.967%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -11.57%E -5.14%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -7.92%E -2.99%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 11:35
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -11.57%E -5.14%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -13.13%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-20 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.