The School of Odds
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Spennymoor Town FC v Chester FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Spennymoor Town FC 4–1 Chester FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spennymoor Town FC (Local)

Prediction 31.98%3.13fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.05%32.11%31.93%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.742.872.903.0036.50%34.80%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chester FC (Visit)

Prediction 42.35%2.36fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.39%42.42%42.47%43.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.102.122.2649.50%47.53%47.17%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +0.673%
Kelly +0.897%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.32%25.47%25.60%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.513.444.0029.41%28.48%29.07%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spennymoor Town FC (Local): 31.98%; Chester FC (Visit): 42.35%; Draw: 25.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -10.46%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV +2.69%E +0.673%K +0.897%G +0.024%7.2%2026-10-03 11:10
1xBet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.57%EV -9.18%E -3.23%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.18%EV -4.30%E -1.90%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.26%EV +0.895%E +0.228%K +0.306%G +0.003%4.9%2026-10-03 11:15
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -5.01%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 11:09
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -6.84%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.06%E -1.35%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.84%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.58%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 12:05
NordicBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.51%EV -7.26%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.10%EV -10.22%E -4.82%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.58%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-03 13:55
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.51%EV -7.26%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.10%EV -10.22%E -4.82%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -7.58%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-03 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -8.86%E -3.11%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -7.58%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.46%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 32.63%EV -12.38%E -4.52%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.39%EV -8.53%E -3.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 25.99%EV -11.68%E -3.40%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:08
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.46%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -10.46%E -3.73%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:15
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -5.66%E -1.92%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.88%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -12.06%E -4.38%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -13.19%E -6.43%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.