The School of Odds
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Plymouth Parkway FC v Horsham FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Plymouth Parkway FC 2–1 Horsham FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Plymouth Parkway FC (Local)

Prediction 36.41%2.75fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.16%36.65%36.43%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.442.452.6542.92%40.94%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Horsham FC (Visit)

Prediction 37.80%2.65fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.02%37.89%37.68%39.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.452.5543.48%40.72%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV +3.15%
Edge +0.788%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%25.46%25.89%26.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.473.404.0030.30%28.79%29.41%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Plymouth Parkway FC (Local): 36.41%; Horsham FC (Visit): 37.80%; Draw: 25.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.29%E -3.87%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +3.15%E +0.788%K +1.05%G +0.033%8.3%2026-10-03 13:35
1xBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.68%EV -5.69%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.26%EV -8.53%E -3.53%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV +1.86%E +0.472%K +0.632%G +0.012%5.2%2026-10-03 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.32%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -7.40%E -3.02%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -2.00%E -0.528%K -0.716%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -3.50%E -1.32%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.40%E -3.02%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 13:55
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -3.50%E -1.32%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.40%E -3.02%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.57%EV -6.26%E -2.53%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -9.29%E -3.87%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.96%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -9.29%E -3.87%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -10.04%E -4.22%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-03 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 36.38%EV -10.42%E -4.24%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.60%EV -10.04%E -4.22%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.02%EV -11.29%E -3.28%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 11:08
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -8.96%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -10.04%E -4.22%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -8.96%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -10.04%E -4.22%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-03 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -8.96%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -10.42%E -4.40%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 13:40
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -8.96%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -10.42%E -4.40%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 13:40
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -9.29%E -3.87%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -9.29%E -3.87%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:15
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.33%EV -15.15%E -6.50%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -3.62%E -1.42%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -8.96%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -13.07%E -5.68%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.90%E -4.51%K -6.48%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.