The School of Odds
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Plymouth Parkway FC v Chertsey Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Plymouth Parkway FC 2–0 Chertsey Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Plymouth Parkway FC (Local)

Prediction 49.46%2.02fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.21%49.46%49.52%50.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.841.821.9555.87%54.29%54.95%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chertsey Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 26.34%3.80fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.690%
Kelly -0.945%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%26.30%26.33%28.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.453.7030.77%29.14%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.20%4.13fair odd
EV -0.761%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.246%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%24.24%24.15%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.713.704.1028.57%26.96%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Plymouth Parkway FC (Local): 49.46%; Chertsey Town FC (Visit): 26.34%; Draw: 24.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -0.761%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -3.56%E -1.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.02%E -2.11%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 08:50
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -3.56%E -1.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -8.02%E -2.11%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -14.40%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 08:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -14.40%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 08:50
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -14.40%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 08:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -14.40%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 08:50
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 27.31%EV -12.82%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -7.51%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -0.761%E -0.186%K -0.246%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 13:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -7.51%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.60%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 12:15
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -7.51%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.02%E -2.11%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:50
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.50%E -4.60%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -2.55%E -0.690%K -0.945%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:05
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.50%E -4.60%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -2.55%E -0.690%K -0.945%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.86%E -3.57%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:05
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.50%E -4.60%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.02%E -2.11%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.15%EV -9.99%E -5.49%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -5.60%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 12:10
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.54%EV -9.99%E -5.49%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -11.65%E -3.19%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 12:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.35%EV -10.98%E -6.10%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -14.40%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.87%EV -15.28%E -4.37%K -6.11%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-17 13:55
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:54
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.93%EV -11.47%E -6.41%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.44%E -2.82%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.