The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Plymouth Parkway FC v Berkhamsted FC

2026-11-09 19:30 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Plymouth Parkway FC (Local)

Prediction 44.20%2.26fair odd
EV +3.88%
Edge +1.65%
Kelly +2.87%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.58%43.99%44.35%44.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.3550.00%47.36%47.62%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Berkhamsted FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.68%3.37fair odd
EV -5.03%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.41%29.85%29.57%34.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.943.003.2039.22%34.03%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.12%3.83fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.910%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.74%26.16%26.08%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.473.453.7030.30%28.80%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Plymouth Parkway FC (Local): 44.20%; Berkhamsted FC (Visit): 29.68%; Draw: 26.12%. For Plymouth Parkway FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.35, producing a positive expected value of +3.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.58%EV +3.88%E +1.65%K +2.87%G +0.111%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.58%EV -20.16%E -7.50%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-02 23:10
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -2.75%E -1.25%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -18.38%E -6.68%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-02 23:07
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -4.08%E -1.88%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.98%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-02 21:35
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.41%EV -6.29%E -2.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.51%EV -5.32%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.08%EV -5.72%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-02 20:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.03%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-02 22:49
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -14.52%E -5.04%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-02 21:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.82%EV -7.17%E -3.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.44%EV -24.32%E -9.54%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -3.37%E -0.910%K -1.25%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-02 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.81%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-02 21:31
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.81%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-02 21:35
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.81%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-02 21:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.38%E -4.58%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.81%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-11-02 21:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -11.59%E -5.80%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.96%E -3.65%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-02 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 41.26%2.58I 38.76%NM 34.22%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%13.3%2026-11-02 21:50