Language:English
Morecambe v Darlington FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Morecambe (Local)
Prediction 59.29%1.69fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -7.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.92%59.45%59.17%60.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.561.6167.57%64.50%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Darlington FC (Visit)
Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV +4.20%
Edge +0.777%
Kelly +0.954%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.99%19.18%19.49%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.544.405.4023.81%22.05%22.73%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.41%4.67fair odd
EV +7.07%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.125%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.59%21.37%21.34%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.164.105.0025.97%24.04%24.39%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Morecambe (Local): 59.29%; Darlington FC (Visit): 19.30%; Draw: 21.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -9.29%E -6.07%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -13.17%E -2.93%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV +7.07%E +1.41%K +1.77%G +0.125% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 12:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.84%EV -6.92%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.14%EV -3.71%E -0.744%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 20.02%EV +2.15%E +0.450%K +0.569%G +0.012% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 13:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -5.78%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 11:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.58%EV -5.73%E -3.60%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -11.24%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -5.78%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -6.92%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.52%E -0.704%K -0.880%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -7.92%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 13:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -11.07%E -7.38%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -8.34%E -1.76%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.06%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-03 13:58 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.44%EV -12.25%E -8.28%K -25.52%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.26%EV -5.45%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -10.06%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-03 13:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.62%EV -9.29%E -6.07%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -11.24%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-03 13:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.58%EV -11.07%E -7.38%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 12:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.92%EV -6.92%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.92%EV -6.92%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.92%EV -6.92%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.08%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -18.96%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.72%EV -12.20%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -8.10%E -5.23%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -15.10%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -14.34%E -3.59%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -8.10%E -5.23%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -15.10%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -14.34%E -3.59%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -8.10%E -5.23%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -15.10%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -14.34%E -3.59%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -8.10%E -5.23%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -15.10%E -3.43%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -14.34%E -3.59%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -11.07%E -7.38%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.24%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.34%E -3.59%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-03 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -8.10%E -5.23%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV +4.20%E +0.777%K +0.954%G +0.040% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -17.55%E -4.56%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -8.10%E -5.23%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV +4.20%E +0.777%K +0.954%G +0.040% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -17.55%E -4.56%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 11:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.