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Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon Town

2026-11-07 15:00 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Milton Keynes Dons (Local)

Prediction 59.04%1.69fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -8.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.78%58.91%59.26%59.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.551.6166.67%64.47%64.52%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Swindon Town (Visit)

Prediction 18.35%5.45fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -0.861%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.88%18.45%18.23%19.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.884.815.2522.73%20.49%20.77%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.61%4.42fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -0.842%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.44%22.64%22.50%23.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.963.904.3026.32%25.24%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Milton Keynes Dons (Local): 59.04%; Swindon Town (Visit): 18.35%; Draw: 22.61%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -2.78%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -4.95%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -3.66%E -0.697%K -0.861%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 23:35
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.35%EV -11.37%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 23:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -3.66%E -0.697%K -0.861%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -2.78%E -0.646%K -0.842%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 23:30
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.94%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.97I 20.12%NM 18.86%EV -8.80%E -1.77%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.21%EV -4.59%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 23:30
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -3.66%E -0.697%K -0.861%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 23:30
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -8.25%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-31 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -11.92%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:30
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -11.92%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -11.92%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:35
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.78%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -11.92%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:35
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.25%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.25%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.25%E -1.65%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 23:34
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -11.92%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 00:48
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.44%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -11.92%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 00:48
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -15.59%E -3.39%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-31 23:35
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -9.67%E -6.32%K -18.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -17.42%E -3.87%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-31 23:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.59%EV -11.44%E -7.63%K -22.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -19.26%E -4.38%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-31 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 58.62%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%13.7%2026-11-01 00:50