The School of Odds
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Marine FC v Warrington Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Marine FC 2–0 Warrington Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marine FC (Local)

Prediction 52.82%1.89fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -5.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.21%52.77%52.90%53.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.741.8159.88%57.35%57.47%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Warrington Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 22.39%4.47fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%22.37%22.36%24.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.993.854.4027.03%25.05%25.97%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV +0.151%
Edge +0.037%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%24.86%24.74%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.604.0429.41%27.53%27.78%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marine FC (Local): 52.82%; Warrington Town FC (Visit): 22.39%; Draw: 24.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.151%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.83%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.58%EV -5.52%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.59%EV +0.151%E +0.037%K +0.050%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 11:43
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -10.45%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -0.840%E -0.210%K -0.280%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-03 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -3.73%E -0.867%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 11:10
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -4.92%E -2.73%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.21%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -4.39%E -2.43%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -11.57%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.70%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -17.16%E -4.64%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.97%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -8.62%E -4.98%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -1.49%E -0.339%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -8.62%E -4.98%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -1.49%E -0.339%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 11:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -14.92%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.76%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.04%E -4.28%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -10.76%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.04%E -4.28%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -10.76%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.04%E -4.28%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -10.76%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.58%EV -11.79%E -7.06%K -17.59%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.56%EV -7.09%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -10.76%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 13:49
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.49%EV -8.09%E -4.65%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -13.80%E -3.59%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -12.00%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-03 11:10
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -9.15%E -5.32%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -1.49%E -0.339%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -14.47%E -4.20%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -9.15%E -5.32%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -1.49%E -0.339%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -14.47%E -4.20%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -10.20%E -6.00%K -14.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -10.45%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -15.71%E -4.62%K -6.55%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.