The School of Odds
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Long Eaton United FC v AFC Rushden and Diamonds

Kickoff: 2026-08-25 18:46 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Long Eaton United FC (Local)

Prediction 39.67%2.52fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.67%39.67%39.67%39.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.322.332.3844.44%43.12%42.92%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AFC Rushden and Diamonds (Visit)

Prediction 35.04%2.85fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.82%35.04%35.04%35.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.722.752.7738.91%36.71%36.36%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.29%3.95fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%25.29%25.29%26.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.543.553.6929.41%28.25%28.17%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Long Eaton United FC (Local): 39.67%; AFC Rushden and Diamonds (Visit): 35.04%; Draw: 25.29%. For AFC Rushden and Diamonds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.77, with an expected value of -2.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.93%EV -5.59%E -2.35%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.31%EV -2.95%E -1.06%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.76%EV -6.66%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-25 18:44
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.78%E -2.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-25 18:43
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:54
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:54
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:54
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -7.57%E -3.25%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -3.65%E -1.33%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.22%EV -10.21%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.67%EV -9.95%E -4.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.04%EV -9.95%E -3.87%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.29%EV -9.95%E -2.80%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-25 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.82%EV -7.15%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -14.00%E -4.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-25 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.82%EV -7.15%E -2.70%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -14.00%E -4.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-25 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.