The School of Odds
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Leiston FC v Guiseley AFC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:01 UTC

Final: Leiston FC 0–3 Guiseley AFC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leiston FC (Local)

Prediction 25.36%3.94fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.358%
Kelly +0.477%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.59%25.34%25.41%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.563.604.0030.77%28.08%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guiseley AFC (Visit)

Prediction 50.74%1.97fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.69%50.76%50.82%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.791.9157.80%55.97%55.87%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.90%4.18fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%23.90%23.78%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.823.854.0027.78%26.21%25.97%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leiston FC (Local): 25.36%; Guiseley AFC (Visit): 50.74%; Draw: 23.90%. For Leiston FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV +1.43%E +0.358%K +0.477%G +0.007%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -7.15%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -9.17%E -2.41%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 13:59
betano_uk🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -3.64%E -0.958%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.67%E -4.82%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 09:45
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -3.64%E -0.958%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.67%E -4.82%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 09:44
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -9.68%E -5.44%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 06:45
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -6.18%E -1.67%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -9.68%E -5.44%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 06:45
1xBet🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 25.75%EV -7.95%E -2.19%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.19%EV -3.59%E -1.89%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.06%EV -10.85%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:59
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -3.09%E -1.62%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -4.39%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.45%EV -4.10%E -2.17%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -9.17%E -2.41%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 06:30
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:19
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:20
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -8.71%E -2.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.82%EV -12.22%E -7.06%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -7.98%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:19
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -9.98%E -2.81%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.16%EV -8.67%E -4.82%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -11.56%E -3.13%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 13:34
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.25%E -3.21%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -11.20%E -6.40%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -10.37%E -2.76%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 10:15
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -13.78%E -4.05%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -8.67%E -4.82%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -4.39%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -13.78%E -4.05%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.37%EV -6.64%E -3.61%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -9.17%E -2.41%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 02:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -16.32%E -4.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -7.15%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.56%E -3.13%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 13:59
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -16.32%E -4.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -7.15%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.56%E -3.13%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 13:59
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -16.32%E -4.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -7.15%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.56%E -3.13%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -16.32%E -4.95%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -7.15%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.56%E -3.13%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 14:00
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -17.59%E -5.41%K -7.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.69%EV -8.67%E -4.82%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -13.95%E -3.88%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.