The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Leatherhead FC v Hanworth Villa FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Leatherhead FC 1–0 Hanworth Villa FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leatherhead FC (Local)

Prediction 39.87%2.51fair odd
EV -6.31%
Edge -2.69%
Kelly -4.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.04%39.84%40.00%41.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.352.3545.45%43.16%42.55%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hanworth Villa FC (Visit)

Prediction 35.21%2.84fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%35.22%35.17%36.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.482.7341.67%39.47%40.32%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV +0.675%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.222%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%24.94%24.83%26.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.454.0429.41%28.00%28.99%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leatherhead FC (Local): 39.87%; Hanworth Villa FC (Visit): 35.21%; Draw: 24.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.675%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.46%EV -8.31%E -3.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.93%EV -3.87%E -1.42%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.61%EV +0.675%E +0.167%K +0.222%G +0.002%4.9%2026-10-03 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.69%E -2.52%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -0.321%E -0.080%K -0.107%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.80%EV -8.70%E -3.80%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -4.92%E -1.82%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 11:08
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.31%E -3.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.74%E -2.95%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -5.31%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -12.29%E -5.59%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.25%EV -11.49%E -5.18%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -8.45%E -3.25%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.38%EV -12.28%E -3.49%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:08
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.31%E -3.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.97%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.78%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.75%EV -10.30%E -4.58%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.33%EV -15.49%E -6.45%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -12.78%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:26
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:26
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:25
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:26
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:25
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:26
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.04%EV -6.31%E -2.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -12.67%E -5.11%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -14.03%E -4.07%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:26
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -8.31%E -3.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.97%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -15.27%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 13:58
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -8.31%E -3.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.97%E -4.79%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -15.27%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.