The School of Odds
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Harrogate Town AFC v Bury

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Harrogate Town AFC 3–1 Bury

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harrogate Town AFC (Local)

Prediction 54.71%1.83fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -6.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.12%54.33%54.67%55.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.701.721.7460.61%58.72%58.14%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bury (Visit)

Prediction 22.20%4.50fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.63%22.84%22.12%26.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.983.904.3028.57%25.13%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.09%4.33fair odd
EV -0.034%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.010%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.10%22.84%23.20%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.793.604.3327.78%26.38%27.78%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harrogate Town AFC (Local): 54.71%; Bury (Visit): 22.20%; Draw: 23.09%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.331. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.330, with an expected value of -0.034%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.80%E -2.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -4.54%E -1.06%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -5.34%E -1.30%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 18:25
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -5.35%E -3.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -22.30%E -6.37%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -0.034%E -0.008%K -0.010%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -13.42%E -3.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.89%E -4.69%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:55
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.72%EV -6.44%E -3.77%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.22%EV -10.54%E -2.61%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.07%EV -2.11%E -0.498%K -0.652%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 18:44
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.99%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -5.65%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.12%E -2.89%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 17:55
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.99%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -5.65%E -1.33%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -11.12%E -2.89%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 17:55
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -9.18%E -5.53%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%EV -12.31%E -3.12%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%EV -8.81%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 18:42
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -6.76%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 18:43
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -6.76%E -1.61%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 18:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -11.20%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -7.65%E -1.91%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 17:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.48%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -11.20%E -2.80%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -9.96%E -2.55%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 07:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.