The School of Odds
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Harborough Town FC v Spennymoor Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Harborough Town FC 3–1 Spennymoor Town FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harborough Town FC (Local)

Prediction 57.62%1.74fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -5.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.51%57.31%57.67%58.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.651.6764.52%61.30%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spennymoor Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 20.11%4.97fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.294%
Kelly -0.369%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.12%20.49%19.82%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.284.264.9026.32%23.35%23.47%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.27%4.49fair odd
EV +0.208%
Edge +0.046%
Kelly +0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.99%22.20%22.50%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.804.5027.78%25.67%26.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harborough Town FC (Local): 57.62%; Spennymoor Town FC (Visit): 20.11%; Draw: 22.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.208%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.08%E -3.73%K -9.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -9.48%E -2.11%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV +0.208%E +0.046%K +0.060%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:54
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -4.93%E -2.99%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -23.56%E -6.20%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -3.58%E -0.826%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:50
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.93%E -2.99%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -3.45%E -0.719%K -0.908%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -6.47%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 13:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -1.44%E -0.294%K -0.369%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -6.47%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.20%EV -10.12%E -6.49%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -9.48%E -2.11%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -6.47%E -1.54%K -2.02%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 13:45
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -6.47%E -1.39%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -9.81%E -2.42%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:55
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.78%EV -6.47%E -1.39%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%EV -9.81%E -2.42%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:55
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.21%EV -7.24%E -4.49%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 21.44%EV -15.12%E -3.58%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.35%EV -9.81%E -2.42%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:40
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -4.93%E -2.99%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -7.47%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.93%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:45
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -4.93%E -2.99%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -7.47%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.93%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:45
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.58%EV -8.39%E -5.28%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.92%EV -13.51%E -3.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.49%EV -10.93%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -10.69%E -6.90%K -19.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -7.47%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.93%E -2.73%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -11.50%E -2.61%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -15.38%E -4.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -11.50%E -2.61%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -15.38%E -4.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -11.50%E -2.61%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -15.38%E -4.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.03%EV -7.81%E -4.88%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.38%EV -11.50%E -2.61%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -15.38%E -4.05%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -3.78%E -2.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -19.54%E -4.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.61%E -4.76%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-16 18:19
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.25%EV -9.54%E -6.08%K -16.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.65%EV -15.52%E -3.70%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.10%EV -19.83%E -5.51%K -7.63%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-17 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.