The School of Odds
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Hanwell Town FC v Dover Athletic FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:02 UTC

Final: Hanwell Town FC 1–2 Dover Athletic FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanwell Town FC (Local)

Prediction 32.79%3.05fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.37%32.84%32.80%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.772.752.9038.17%36.16%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dover Athletic FC (Visit)

Prediction 42.81%2.34fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%42.62%42.86%43.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.142.142.3047.62%46.74%46.73%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV -0.941%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.308%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%24.54%24.34%26.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.653.604.0628.57%27.41%27.78%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanwell Town FC (Local): 32.79%; Dover Athletic FC (Visit): 42.81%; Draw: 24.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.06, with an expected value of -0.941%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.76%EV -4.91%E -1.69%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.19%EV -5.82%E -2.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -3.62%E -0.918%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 14:00
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -4.91%E -1.69%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.05%EV -5.82%E -2.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -4.84%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 11:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -4.91%E -1.69%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -1.54%E -0.668%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -6.55%E -2.30%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -4.84%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 12:09
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.65%EV -7.20%E -2.54%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.90%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.46%EV -0.941%E -0.232%K -0.308%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 11:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.34%EV -8.19%E -2.92%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.02%EV -7.10%E -3.27%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -3.62%E -0.918%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.19%E -2.92%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.40%E -0.601%K -0.802%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.85%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.59%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-03 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 14:01
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 14:00
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -9.82%E -3.57%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.74%EV -10.48%E -3.84%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.16%EV -9.24%E -4.36%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.10%EV -13.14%E -3.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:08
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -11.46%E -4.25%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -8.50%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -13.10%E -4.94%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -4.84%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.38%EV -14.09%E -5.38%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -14.60%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.